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NFL Week 9 2025 – Model Preview

Read this first. These are model projections, not betting advice or predictions. It’s the season opener, so the model is seeded from 2025 form (via Efficiency+ (HFA, recency, regression), 2025 in-season (through wk8)) — the least reliable week of the year: rookies have no data, roles are unsettled, and prior-season spreads run hotter than the market will. No market lines are posted yet, so there are no edges here to bet — just the model’s numbers. For entertainment only. 18+/21+. Problem gambling? BeGambleAware.org (UK) · 1-800-GAMBLER (US).

Model’s Sharpest Reads

projections, no market to beat

Most Confident

Highest projected win probability.

  1. LA over NO 83% win
  2. NE over ATL 78% win
  3. DET over MIN 77% win
  4. GB over CAR 73% win

Projected Shootouts

Highest projected totals.

  1. ARI@DAL56.7
  2. IND@PIT54.9
  3. CHI@CIN54.1

Projected Slugfests

Lowest projected totals.

  1. DEN@HOU40.5
  2. NO@LA40.7
  3. JAX@LV40.9

TD Magnets

highest anytime-touchdown probability
  1. Jonathan TaylorRBIND v PIT93%
  2. Josh JacobsRBGB v CAR87%
  3. Javonte WilliamsRBDAL v ARI76%
  4. Jahmyr GibbsRBDET v MIN70%
  5. Zach CharbonnetRBSEA v WAS68%
  6. Jake FergusonTEDAL v ARI68%
  7. Rashee RiceWRKC v BUF67%
  8. De'Von AchaneRBMIA v BAL66%

The Slate

tap any game to expand the full report
ARI@DALDAL −1.8O/U 56.7ARI 27–29 DAL
ARI 45%DAL 55%
ARICardinals
  1. QBKyler Murray262 pass yd · 1.8 TD · 0.8 INT · 25 rush yd31%21.7
  2. TETrey McBride8-64 on 11 tgt60%16.0
  3. RBTrey Benson8 car · 38 yd   4-32 rec32%11.6
  4. WRMarvin Harrison Jr.4-69 on 6 tgt28%10.8
  5. RBMichael Carter8 car · 32 yd   2-22 rec32%9.0
DALCowboys
  1. QBDak Prescott225 pass yd · 2.5 TD · 0.3 INT · 16 rush yd22%21.6
  2. RBJavonte Williams17 car · 78 yd   2-12 rec76%18.9
  3. WRGeorge Pickens6-83 on 8 tgt59%16.4
  4. WRCeeDee Lamb6-73 on 9 tgt47%14.1
  5. TEJake Ferguson4-33 on 5 tgt68%12.3
IND@PITIND −8.2O/U 54.9IND 32–23 PIT
IND 73%PIT 27%
INDColts
  1. QBDaniel Jones234 pass yd · 2.4 TD · 0.5 INT19%20.6
  2. RBJonathan Taylor19 car · 109 yd   3-18 rec93%30.2
  3. WRMichael Pittman5-50 on 7 tgt58%12.8
  4. TETyler Warren4-59 on 5 tgt51%12.5
  5. WRJosh Downs4-40 on 5 tgt41%9.3
PITSteelers
  1. QBAaron Rodgers242 pass yd · 2.2 TD · 0.7 INT4%18.5
  2. WRDK Metcalf5-72 on 7 tgt49%13.5
  3. RBJaylen Warren12 car · 62 yd   3-16 rec19%10.4
  4. RBKenny Gainwell7 car · 33 yd   4-16 rec37%9.4
  5. TEPat Freiermuth3-45 on 4 tgt37%8.9
CHI@CINCHI −2.2O/U 54.1CHI 28–26 CIN
CHI 56%CIN 44%
CHIBears
  1. QBCaleb Williams249 pass yd · 1.0 TD · 0.9 INT · 14 rush yd25%16.3
  2. RBD'Andre Swift15 car · 93 yd   2-28 rec66%19.8
  3. WRRome Odunze4-66 on 7 tgt30%10.8
  4. WRDJ Moore4-51 on 5 tgt16%8.7
  5. RBKyle Monangai8 car · 42 yd   1-8 rec30%7.5
CINBengals
  1. QBJoe Flacco305 pass yd · 3.2 TD · 0.2 INT18%27.0
  2. WRJa'Marr Chase10-116 on 15 tgt61%22.2
  3. RBChase Brown10 car · 62 yd   4-20 rec38%12.8
  4. WRTee Higgins4-61 on 7 tgt46%11.6
  5. TENoah Fant4-31 on 4 tgt28%6.8
BAL@MIAMIA −1.5O/U 52.1BAL 25–27 MIA
BAL 46%MIA 54%
BALRavens
  1. QBLamar Jackson156 pass yd · 1.1 TD · 0.5 INT · 33 rush yd18%14.8
  2. RBDerrick Henry17 car · 77 yd   1-11 rec56%14.4
  3. WRZay Flowers6-61 on 8 tgt14%10.2
  4. RBJustice Hill3 car · 18 yd   3-24 rec31%8.0
  5. TEMark Andrews4-37 on 5 tgt16%7.3
MIADolphins
  1. QBTua Tagovailoa190 pass yd · 2.5 TD · 0.9 INT5%17.8
  2. RBDe'Von Achane16 car · 82 yd   4-26 rec66%19.4
  3. WRJaylen Waddle4-62 on 6 tgt36%11.0
  4. WRTyreek Hill4-49 on 6 tgt22%8.7
  5. TEDarren Waller2-30 on 3 tgt48%8.1
SEA@WASSEA −6.4O/U 49.4SEA 28–22 WAS
SEA 68%WAS 32%
SEASeahawks
  1. QBSam Darnold276 pass yd · 2.6 TD · 0.4 INT7%22.2
  2. WRJaxon Smith-Njigba7-120 on 10 tgt56%20.6
  3. RBZach Charbonnet12 car · 43 yd   1-11 rec68%12.8
  4. TEAJ Barner3-40 on 4 tgt45%9.3
  5. RBKenneth Walker III15 car · 68 yd   1-7 rec18%9.1
WASCommanders
  1. QBJayden Daniels189 pass yd · 1.3 TD · 0.5 INT · 41 rush yd28%18.3
  2. WRDeebo Samuel Sr.5-47 on 7 tgt38%10.4
  3. RBJacory Croskey-Merritt11 car · 40 yd   1-10 rec32%7.9
  4. TEZach Ertz4-30 on 5 tgt31%7.0
  5. WRTerry McLaurin3-34 on 4 tgt31%6.9
MIN@DETDET −10.0O/U 48.4MIN 19–29 DET
MIN 23%DET 77%
🏟 dome
MINVikings
  1. QBCarson Wentz285 pass yd · 1.3 TD · 1.6 INT · 11 rush yd5%16.4
  2. WRJustin Jefferson7-105 on 12 tgt12%14.9
  3. WRJordan Addison5-78 on 8 tgt35%12.9
  4. RBJordan Mason10 car · 35 yd   2-8 rec32%7.5
  5. TET.J. Hockenson4-43 on 6 tgt13%7.4
DETLions
  1. QBJared Goff203 pass yd · 2.5 TD · 0.4 INT5%18.7
  2. RBJahmyr Gibbs18 car · 89 yd   2-14 rec70%18.3
  3. WRAmon-Ra St. Brown6-80 on 8 tgt54%16.0
  4. TESam LaPorta4-36 on 4 tgt38%8.3
  5. RBDavid Montgomery13 car · 39 yd   1-8 rec38%8.2
SF@NYGSF −0.6O/U 45.6SF 23–23 NYG
SF 52%NYG 48%
SF49ers
  1. QBBrock Purdy277 pass yd · 1.8 TD · 1.2 INT7%18.5
  2. RBChristian McCaffrey18 car · 79 yd   6-58 rec63%23.0
  3. WRKendrick Bourne4-65 on 6 tgt10%9.1
  4. TEJake Tonges4-33 on 6 tgt46%8.9
  5. WRRicky Pearsall3-42 on 5 tgt17%7.0
NYGGiants
  1. QBJaxson Dart198 pass yd · 1.6 TD · 0.5 INT · 38 rush yd49%21.6
  2. RBCam Skattebo16 car · 59 yd   3-21 rec58%14.7
  3. WRWan'Dale Robinson5-58 on 7 tgt22%9.8
  4. TETheo Johnson3-29 on 5 tgt47%8.5
  5. WRDarius Slayton3-39 on 5 tgt12%6.2
CAR@GBGB −8.4O/U 45.5CAR 19–27 GB
CAR 27%GB 73%
CARPanthers
  1. QBBryce Young165 pass yd · 1.4 TD · 0.5 INT5%12.7
  2. RBRico Dowdle15 car · 80 yd   2-14 rec27%12.3
  3. WRTetairoa McMillan5-60 on 8 tgt29%10.7
  4. WRXavier Legette4-39 on 5 tgt29%7.9
  5. RBChuba Hubbard10 car · 33 yd   2-12 rec26%7.3
GBPackers
  1. QBJordan Love241 pass yd · 1.9 TD · 0.4 INT · 18 rush yd9%19.4
  2. RBJosh Jacobs19 car · 86 yd   2-19 rec87%24.1
  3. TETucker Kraft5-71 on 6 tgt58%14.6
  4. WRRomeo Doubs4-51 on 7 tgt50%11.4
  5. RBEmanuel Wilson8 car · 41 yd   2-10 rec17%7.0
KC@BUFKC −1.8O/U 45.3KC 24–22 BUF
KC 55%BUF 45%
KCChiefs
  1. QBPatrick Mahomes262 pass yd · 2.2 TD · 0.5 INT · 29 rush yd30%23.7
  2. WRRashee Rice7-72 on 9 tgt67%18.0
  3. TETravis Kelce5-55 on 6 tgt34%10.6
  4. RBIsiah Pacheco11 car · 58 yd   1-8 rec32%9.6
  5. WRXavier Worthy4-49 on 6 tgt24%9.4
BUFBills
  1. QBJosh Allen188 pass yd · 1.3 TD · 1.1 INT · 33 rush yd42%18.1
  2. RBJames Cook18 car · 109 yd   1-7 rec51%16.3
  3. WRKhalil Shakir5-48 on 7 tgt35%10.0
  4. TEDalton Kincaid3-41 on 4 tgt24%7.2
  5. WRKeon Coleman4-28 on 5 tgt22%6.1
LAC@TENLAC −8.4O/U 44.5LAC 26–18 TEN
LAC 73%TEN 27%
LACChargers
  1. QBJustin Herbert255 pass yd · 2.2 TD · 0.8 INT · 27 rush yd8%21.4
  2. RBOmarion Hampton14 car · 93 yd   4-25 rec51%18.3
  3. WRLadd McConkey6-71 on 9 tgt46%13.6
  4. WRQuentin Johnston5-64 on 7 tgt46%12.6
  5. RBKimani Vidal12 car · 70 yd   2-9 rec37%11.5
TENTitans
  1. QBCam Ward223 pass yd · 0.5 TD · 1.3 INT4%10.6
  2. RBTony Pollard10 car · 46 yd   3-17 rec20%9.1
  3. RBTyjae Spears5 car · 28 yd   2-14 rec19%6.8
  4. WRCalvin Ridley3-46 on 5 tgt10%6.7
  5. WRChimere Dike3-34 on 4 tgt17%6.1
ATL@NENE −10.2O/U 42.4ATL 16–26 NE
ATL 22%NE 78%
ATLFalcons
  1. QBMichael Penix Jr.313 pass yd · 1.1 TD · 0.6 INT5%17.6
  2. WRDrake London9-122 on 13 tgt40%19.5
  3. RBBijan Robinson12 car · 50 yd   6-58 rec39%16.6
  4. TEKyle Pitts6-66 on 8 tgt22%11.4
  5. RBTyler Allgeier7 car · 20 yd   1-5 rec31%5.1
NEPatriots
  1. QBDrake Maye181 pass yd · 2.3 TD · 0.3 INT · 30 rush yd22%20.6
  2. RBRhamondre Stevenson14 car · 49 yd   1-6 rec54%10.8
  3. WRStefon Diggs5-56 on 6 tgt22%9.4
  4. WRKayshon Boutte2-37 on 3 tgt42%8.1
  5. RBTreVeyon Henderson8 car · 37 yd   1-6 rec27%6.6
JAX@LVJAX −3.8O/U 40.9JAX 22–19 LV
JAX 61%LV 39%
🏟 dome
JAXJaguars
  1. QBTrevor Lawrence232 pass yd · 1.2 TD · 0.3 INT · 23 rush yd32%18.6
  2. RBTravis Etienne14 car · 58 yd   2-12 rec31%10.5
  3. WRBrian Thomas Jr.5-59 on 7 tgt25%10.3
  4. WRParker Washington2-29 on 5 tgt23%6.1
  5. TEBrenton Strange3-35 on 4 tgt15%6.0
LVRaiders
  1. QBGeno Smith156 pass yd · 0.9 TD · 1.6 INT · 12 rush yd6%9.7
  2. RBAshton Jeanty15 car · 59 yd   2-23 rec48%13.3
  3. TEBrock Bowers5-52 on 6 tgt21%9.0
  4. TEAlbert Okwuegbunam5-49 on 6 tgt21%8.7
  5. TEMichael Mayer3-37 on 5 tgt27%7.3
NO@LALA −12.9O/U 40.7NO 14–27 LA
NO 17%LA 83%
🏟 dome
NOSaints
  1. QBTyler Shough176 pass yd · 0.5 TD · 0.7 INT · 13 rush yd7%9.9
  2. WRChris Olave6-71 on 10 tgt36%12.9
  3. WRRashid Shaheed5-62 on 8 tgt18%10.2
  4. RBAlvin Kamara8 car · 28 yd   4-20 rec10%7.3
  5. TEJuwan Johnson3-33 on 5 tgt9%5.5
LARams
  1. QBMatthew Stafford255 pass yd · 3.5 TD · 0.1 INT8%25.4
  2. WRPuka Nacua7-83 on 9 tgt48%15.7
  3. RBKyren Williams15 car · 65 yd   4-27 rec55%15.7
  4. WRDavante Adams4-54 on 8 tgt59%12.9
  5. TETyler Higbee3-30 on 4 tgt30%6.6
DEN@HOUHOU −2.1O/U 40.5DEN 19–21 HOU
DEN 44%HOU 56%
DENBroncos
  1. QBBo Nix237 pass yd · 1.4 TD · 0.6 INT · 19 rush yd30%18.5
  2. WRCourtland Sutton4-63 on 7 tgt19%9.7
  3. RBJ.K. Dobbins15 car · 67 yd   1-5 rec22%9.2
  4. WRTroy Franklin4-45 on 7 tgt37%9.2
  5. RBRJ Harvey6 car · 21 yd   2-15 rec44%8.2
HOUTexans
  1. QBC.J. Stroud234 pass yd · 1.6 TD · 0.4 INT · 20 rush yd7%17.7
  2. RBWoody Marks12 car · 42 yd   3-30 rec44%11.9
  3. WRNico Collins4-42 on 7 tgt28%8.2
  4. TEDalton Schultz4-51 on 6 tgt13%8.2
  5. RBNick Chubb12 car · 44 yd   1-11 rec28%8.1