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NFL Week 2 2025 – Model Preview

Read this first. These are model projections, not betting advice or predictions. It’s the season opener, so the model is seeded from 2025 form (via Efficiency+ (HFA, recency, regression), 2025 in-season (through wk1)) — the least reliable week of the year: rookies have no data, roles are unsettled, and prior-season spreads run hotter than the market will. No market lines are posted yet, so there are no edges here to bet — just the model’s numbers. For entertainment only. 18+/21+. Problem gambling? BeGambleAware.org (UK) · 1-800-GAMBLER (US).

Model’s Sharpest Reads

projections, no market to beat

Most Confident

Highest projected win probability.

  1. ARI over CAR 61% win
  2. IND over DEN 59% win
  3. DAL over NYG 58% win
  4. PIT over SEA 56% win

Projected Shootouts

Highest projected totals.

  1. BUF@NYJ47.8
  2. CLE@BAL44.5
  3. SEA@PIT42.6

Projected Slugfests

Lowest projected totals.

  1. LA@TEN38.5
  2. SF@NO39.4
  3. TB@HOU39.6

TD Magnets

highest anytime-touchdown probability
  1. Derrick HenryRBBAL v CLE72%
  2. Javonte WilliamsRBDAL v NYG68%
  3. Saquon BarkleyRBPHI v KC55%
  4. Ashton JeantyRBLV v LAC54%
  5. Chase BrownRBCIN v JAX54%
  6. James CookRBBUF v NYJ53%
  7. Quentin JohnstonWRLAC v LV51%
  8. Josh JacobsRBGB v WAS51%

The Slate

tap any game to expand the full report
BUF@NYJNYJ −1.2O/U 47.8BUF 23–24 NYJ
BUF 46%NYJ 54%
BUFBills
  1. QBJosh Allen420 pass yd · 2.4 TD · 0.3 INT · 50 rush yd79%40.5
  2. WRKeon Coleman8-116 on 11 tgt49%19.5
  3. RBJames Cook13 car · 38 yd   4-29 rec53%13.5
  4. WRKhalil Shakir6-81 on 9 tgt19%12.3
  5. WRJosh Palmer6-79 on 9 tgt19%12.0
NYJJets
  1. QBJustin Fields201 pass yd · 1.1 TD · 0.2 INT · 54 rush yd78%27.0
  2. RBBreece Hall19 car · 110 yd   3-25 rec33%17.3
  3. WRGarrett Wilson7-93 on 9 tgt46%16.3
  4. RBBraelon Allen6 car · 25 yd   0-0 rec32%4.8
  5. WRJosh Reynolds2-26 on 3 tgt9%4.2
CLE@BALBAL −1.5O/U 44.5CLE 21–23 BAL
CLE 46%BAL 54%
CLEBrowns
  1. QBJoe Flacco345 pass yd · 1.4 TD · 1.5 INT12%19.8
  2. RBDylan Sampson12 car · 44 yd   7-60 rec32%15.9
  3. TEHarold Fannin Jr.8-76 on 9 tgt24%13.4
  4. WRCedric Tillman5-62 on 8 tgt40%12.0
  5. WRJerry Jeudy5-67 on 8 tgt16%10.5
BALRavens
  1. QBLamar Jackson133 pass yd · 1.4 TD · 0.2 INT · 41 rush yd47%18.8
  2. RBDerrick Henry18 car · 96 yd   1-4 rec72%18.1
  3. WRZay Flowers6-82 on 9 tgt46%15.3
  4. WRRashod Bateman2-22 on 4 tgt11%4.0
  5. WRDeAndre Hopkins1-15 on 2 tgt17%3.2
SEA@PITPIT −2.1O/U 42.6SEA 20–22 PIT
SEA 44%PIT 56%
SEASeahawks
  1. QBSam Darnold180 pass yd · 0.5 TD · 0.2 INT · 10 rush yd12%10.9
  2. WRJaxon Smith-Njigba10-135 on 13 tgt20%19.7
  3. RBZach Charbonnet12 car · 55 yd   0-0 rec39%8.4
  4. RBKenneth Walker III10 car · 38 yd   2-17 rec21%8.1
  5. WRCooper Kupp2-26 on 3 tgt8%4.2
PITSteelers
  1. QBAaron Rodgers250 pass yd · 3.0 TD · 0.3 INT7%22.5
  2. WRCalvin Austin III3-62 on 6 tgt35%10.4
  3. WRDK Metcalf4-73 on 7 tgt15%10.2
  4. RBJaylen Warren11 car · 35 yd   2-14 rec31%7.9
  5. TEJonnu Smith5-27 on 6 tgt37%7.9
ATL@MINMIN −2.1O/U 42.4ATL 20–22 MIN
ATL 44%MIN 56%
🏟 dome
ATLFalcons
  1. QBMichael Penix Jr.267 pass yd · 0.9 TD · 0.3 INT · 27 rush yd43%20.1
  2. RBBijan Robinson12 car · 30 yd   5-46 rec47%14.0
  3. WRDrake London9-74 on 15 tgt22%13.4
  4. TEKyle Pitts6-60 on 8 tgt20%10.1
  5. WRCasey Washington4-37 on 6 tgt13%6.4
MINVikings
  1. QBJ.J. McCarthy114 pass yd · 1.4 TD · 0.6 INT · 12 rush yd22%12.4
  2. WRJustin Jefferson4-46 on 7 tgt39%9.8
  3. RBAaron Jones8 car · 24 yd   3-16 rec33%7.8
  4. RBJordan Mason16 car · 52 yd   1-4 rec22%7.6
  5. TET.J. Hockenson3-25 on 4 tgt13%4.7
PHI@KCKC −0.5O/U 42.3PHI 21–21 KC
PHI 48%KC 52%
PHIEagles
  1. QBJalen Hurts177 pass yd · 0.5 TD · 0.2 INT · 66 rush yd76%24.1
  2. RBSaquon Barkley18 car · 55 yd   4-30 rec55%15.5
  3. TEDallas Goedert6-57 on 7 tgt18%10.1
  4. WRJahan Dotson2-32 on 3 tgt8%4.8
  5. WRDeVonta Smith2-24 on 3 tgt8%4.0
KCChiefs
  1. QBPatrick Mahomes219 pass yd · 1.1 TD · 0.3 INT · 37 rush yd44%20.3
  2. WRMarquise Brown10-109 on 16 tgt23%17.3
  3. WRJuJu Smith-Schuster4-42 on 5 tgt12%6.7
  4. TETravis Kelce2-25 on 4 tgt28%5.8
  5. RBIsiah Pacheco5 car · 25 yd   2-11 rec17%5.8
CHI@DETDET −0.4O/U 42.1CHI 21–21 DET
CHI 49%DET 51%
🏟 dome
CHIBears
  1. QBCaleb Williams256 pass yd · 1.3 TD · 0.2 INT · 38 rush yd44%22.3
  2. WRRome Odunze6-68 on 9 tgt42%13.2
  3. RBD'Andre Swift17 car · 52 yd   4-18 rec30%11.2
  4. WROlamide Zaccheaus5-60 on 7 tgt15%9.3
  5. WRDJ Moore3-55 on 5 tgt17%9.2
DETLions
  1. QBJared Goff256 pass yd · 1.3 TD · 1.0 INT7%15.4
  2. RBJahmyr Gibbs9 car · 31 yd   10-52 rec31%15.2
  3. TESam LaPorta7-55 on 9 tgt22%10.4
  4. RBDavid Montgomery11 car · 37 yd   4-24 rec25%9.7
  5. WRAmon-Ra St. Brown3-39 on 6 tgt13%6.5
LAC@LVLV −1.6O/U 41.1LAC 20–21 LV
LAC 45%LV 55%
🏟 dome
LACChargers
  1. QBJustin Herbert262 pass yd · 1.6 TD · 0.3 INT · 34 rush yd28%21.7
  2. WRKeenan Allen7-68 on 10 tgt42%13.4
  3. WRQuentin Johnston5-57 on 7 tgt51%12.4
  4. WRLadd McConkey6-65 on 9 tgt16%10.6
  5. RBOmarion Hampton15 car · 47 yd   2-9 rec22%7.8
LVRaiders
  1. QBGeno Smith290 pass yd · 0.8 TD · 0.8 INT12%15.9
  2. WRJakobi Meyers7-79 on 10 tgt18%12.6
  3. TEBrock Bowers5-85 on 8 tgt20%12.3
  4. RBAshton Jeanty20 car · 61 yd   2-7 rec54%12.2
  5. TEMichael Mayer3-35 on 4 tgt13%5.7
NE@MIANE −0.3O/U 40.5NE 20–20 MIA
NE 51%MIA 49%
NEPatriots
  1. QBDrake Maye338 pass yd · 1.1 TD · 0.9 INT · 18 rush yd20%20.1
  2. WRKayshon Boutte6-90 on 8 tgt16%12.9
  3. TEHunter Henry6-71 on 8 tgt19%11.2
  4. WRStefon Diggs5-65 on 7 tgt14%10.1
  5. RBTreVeyon Henderson5 car · 20 yd   6-35 rec22%9.7
MIADolphins
  1. QBTua Tagovailoa158 pass yd · 0.7 TD · 1.3 INT6%8.5
  2. RBDe'Von Achane7 car · 28 yd   4-16 rec34%8.7
  3. WRTyreek Hill4-53 on 6 tgt13%8.2
  4. WRJaylen Waddle4-43 on 5 tgt11%6.9
  5. WRMalik Washington3-40 on 5 tgt13%6.7
DEN@INDIND −3.2O/U 40.3DEN 19–22 IND
DEN 41%IND 59%
DENBroncos
  1. QBBo Nix190 pass yd · 0.9 TD · 1.8 INT · 32 rush yd28%14.6
  2. RBJ.K. Dobbins15 car · 72 yd   2-8 rec44%12.3
  3. WRCourtland Sutton6-54 on 9 tgt39%11.2
  4. WRTroy Franklin4-37 on 6 tgt12%6.4
  5. RBRJ Harvey6 car · 39 yd   1-4 rec12%5.5
INDColts
  1. QBDaniel Jones190 pass yd · 1.0 TD · 0.2 INT · 32 rush yd62%20.3
  2. RBJonathan Taylor19 car · 59 yd   3-20 rec28%11.3
  3. WRMichael Pittman5-52 on 8 tgt39%10.5
  4. TETyler Warren6-55 on 9 tgt23%10.4
  5. RBDJ Giddens13 car · 38 yd   0-0 rec17%4.9
NYG@DALDAL −2.6O/U 40.1NYG 19–21 DAL
NYG 42%DAL 58%
NYGGiants
  1. QBRussell Wilson207 pass yd · 0.5 TD · 0.3 INT · 41 rush yd29%16.3
  2. WRMalik Nabers7-101 on 12 tgt18%14.9
  3. WRWan'Dale Robinson6-72 on 8 tgt15%11.2
  4. RBTyrone Tracy Jr.10 car · 33 yd   4-21 rec23%8.8
  5. TETheo Johnson2-15 on 3 tgt9%3.2
DALCowboys
  1. QBDak Prescott230 pass yd · 0.5 TD · 0.2 INT7%11.8
  2. WRCeeDee Lamb8-118 on 13 tgt20%17.0
  3. RBJavonte Williams16 car · 71 yd   2-17 rec68%16.8
  4. TEJake Ferguson4-28 on 6 tgt17%5.9
  5. WRGeorge Pickens3-34 on 4 tgt10%5.4
JAX@CINJAX −0.0O/U 40.0JAX 20–20 CIN
JAX 50%CIN 50%
JAXJaguars
  1. QBTrevor Lawrence185 pass yd · 0.8 TD · 0.9 INT · 18 rush yd20%12.6
  2. RBTravis Etienne16 car · 79 yd   3-18 rec25%12.8
  3. WRBrian Thomas Jr.4-38 on 7 tgt19%7.1
  4. WRDyami Brown3-33 on 4 tgt13%6.1
  5. TEBrenton Strange3-33 on 4 tgt12%5.5
CINBengals
  1. QBJoe Burrow116 pass yd · 0.7 TD · 0.2 INT12%8.6
  2. RBChase Brown21 car · 58 yd   2-12 rec54%12.7
  3. TENoah Fant4-34 on 5 tgt31%7.6
  4. WRJa'Marr Chase3-28 on 5 tgt11%4.8
  5. WRTee Higgins2-25 on 4 tgt10%4.2
CAR@ARIARI −3.8O/U 40.0CAR 18–22 ARI
CAR 39%ARI 61%
CARPanthers
  1. QBBryce Young170 pass yd · 0.9 TD · 1.4 INT · 28 rush yd21%13.5
  2. RBChuba Hubbard15 car · 63 yd   4-33 rec40%14.7
  3. WRTetairoa McMillan5-56 on 9 tgt15%9.4
  4. WRXavier Legette4-33 on 7 tgt13%6.1
  5. WRHunter Renfrow3-30 on 6 tgt12%5.4
ARICardinals
  1. QBKyler Murray146 pass yd · 1.2 TD · 0.3 INT · 36 rush yd30%16.3
  2. TETrey McBride7-72 on 9 tgt21%12.0
  3. RBJames Conner13 car · 56 yd   4-14 rec40%11.8
  4. WRMarvin Harrison Jr.4-40 on 6 tgt34%8.3
  5. RBTrey Benson8 car · 54 yd   1-4 rec17%7.3
WAS@GBGB −1.4O/U 39.8WAS 19–21 GB
WAS 46%GB 54%
WASCommanders
  1. QBJayden Daniels190 pass yd · 0.7 TD · 0.3 INT · 60 rush yd34%18.8
  2. WRDeebo Samuel Sr.7-66 on 10 tgt22%12.1
  3. TEZach Ertz3-40 on 5 tgt30%7.8
  4. RBJacory Croskey-Merritt10 car · 42 yd   1-4 rec36%7.7
  5. RBAustin Ekeler6 car · 19 yd   3-15 rec17%5.9
GBPackers
  1. QBJordan Love138 pass yd · 1.2 TD · 0.2 INT · 13 rush yd16%12.4
  2. RBJosh Jacobs19 car · 58 yd   1-4 rec51%10.8
  3. WRJayden Reed3-31 on 5 tgt29%6.6
  4. TETucker Kraft2-20 on 4 tgt29%5.6
  5. WRRomeo Doubs2-30 on 4 tgt10%4.7
TB@HOUHOU −0.7O/U 39.6TB 19–20 HOU
TB 48%HOU 52%
TBBuccaneers
  1. QBBaker Mayfield220 pass yd · 1.7 TD · 0.2 INT · 28 rush yd22%19.9
  2. WREmeka Egbuka4-62 on 6 tgt48%12.6
  3. WRMike Evans6-69 on 8 tgt15%10.7
  4. RBBucky Irving14 car · 43 yd   3-20 rec38%10.6
  5. WRSterling Shepard4-53 on 6 tgt12%8.0
HOUTexans
  1. QBC.J. Stroud193 pass yd · 0.4 TD · 0.7 INT · 26 rush yd23%12.8
  2. RBNick Chubb13 car · 44 yd   1-6 rec19%6.7
  3. TEDalton Schultz4-35 on 5 tgt14%6.3
  4. TECade Stover3-28 on 4 tgt12%5.3
  5. WRNico Collins3-28 on 5 tgt11%4.8
SF@NONO −0.4O/U 39.4SF 19–20 NO
SF 49%NO 51%
🏟 dome
SF49ers
  1. QBBrock Purdy220 pass yd · 1.7 TD · 1.3 INT · 23 rush yd22%18.2
  2. RBChristian McCaffrey22 car · 92 yd   9-48 rec35%21.3
  3. WRRicky Pearsall5-61 on 7 tgt14%9.2
  4. RBBrian Robinson9 car · 41 yd   2-8 rec18%6.9
  5. TEGeorge Kittle3-24 on 4 tgt26%5.7
NOSaints
  1. QBSpencer Rattler243 pass yd · 0.6 TD · 0.3 INT · 22 rush yd20%15.3
  2. WRChris Olave8-89 on 13 tgt20%14.4
  3. TEJuwan Johnson7-61 on 11 tgt22%11.3
  4. WRRashid Shaheed6-63 on 9 tgt16%10.5
  5. RBAlvin Kamara11 car · 35 yd   2-8 rec42%8.5
LA@TENTEN −0.2O/U 38.5LA 19–19 TEN
LA 49%TEN 51%
LARams
  1. QBMatthew Stafford187 pass yd · 0.7 TD · 0.3 INT · 15 rush yd19%12.8
  2. WRPuka Nacua9-82 on 11 tgt19%14.5
  3. RBKyren Williams18 car · 82 yd   1-8 rec48%13.6
  4. WRDavante Adams5-46 on 8 tgt15%8.1
  5. TEDavis Allen1-11 on 2 tgt16%2.8
TENTitans
  1. QBCam Ward157 pass yd · 0.5 TD · 0.3 INT0%7.8
  2. WRCalvin Ridley5-56 on 8 tgt15%9.1
  3. RBTony Pollard18 car · 61 yd   1-6 rec21%8.5
  4. WRElic Ayomanor4-46 on 7 tgt14%7.5
  5. TEChig Okonkwo3-21 on 4 tgt12%4.4