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NFL Week 14 2025 – Model Preview

Read this first. These are model projections, not betting advice or predictions. It’s the season opener, so the model is seeded from 2025 form (via Efficiency+ (HFA, recency, regression), 2025 in-season (through wk13)) — the least reliable week of the year: rookies have no data, roles are unsettled, and prior-season spreads run hotter than the market will. No market lines are posted yet, so there are no edges here to bet — just the model’s numbers. For entertainment only. 18+/21+. Problem gambling? BeGambleAware.org (UK) · 1-800-GAMBLER (US).

Model’s Sharpest Reads

projections, no market to beat

Most Confident

Highest projected win probability.

  1. BUF over CIN 79% win
  2. LA over ARI 79% win
  3. SEA over ATL 75% win
  4. DEN over LV 75% win

Projected Shootouts

Highest projected totals.

  1. DAL@DET59.2
  2. CIN@BUF56.9
  3. LA@ARI50.5

Projected Slugfests

Lowest projected totals.

  1. TEN@CLE37.3
  2. DEN@LV39.4
  3. HOU@KC40.9

TD Magnets

highest anytime-touchdown probability
  1. Jahmyr GibbsRBDET v DAL78%
  2. Davante AdamsWRLA v ARI78%
  3. Kyren WilliamsRBLA v ARI76%
  4. Drake LondonWRATL v SEA63%
  5. Bucky IrvingRBTB v NO60%
  6. Jameson WilliamsWRDET v DAL59%
  7. Derrick HenryRBBAL v PIT58%
  8. Tee HigginsWRCIN v BUF57%

The Slate

tap any game to expand the full report
DAL@DETDET −4.5O/U 59.2DAL 27–32 DET
DAL 37%DET 63%
🏟 dome
DALCowboys
  1. QBDak Prescott315 pass yd · 3.3 TD · 0.9 INT · 13 rush yd23%27.9
  2. WRGeorge Pickens7-114 on 11 tgt48%18.8
  3. WRCeeDee Lamb6-88 on 10 tgt47%15.5
  4. RBJavonte Williams17 car · 69 yd   2-10 rec26%10.6
  5. TEJake Ferguson4-43 on 6 tgt31%8.8
DETLions
  1. QBJared Goff289 pass yd · 3.1 TD · 0.3 INT2%23.9
  2. RBJahmyr Gibbs15 car · 103 yd   5-45 rec78%26.5
  3. WRJameson Williams4-84 on 6 tgt59%16.2
  4. WRAmon-Ra St. Brown6-80 on 9 tgt43%14.1
  5. TESam LaPorta5-55 on 6 tgt44%11.5
CIN@BUFBUF −11.0O/U 56.9CIN 23–34 BUF
CIN 21%BUF 79%
CINBengals
  1. QBJoe Burrow302 pass yd · 1.9 TD · 0.4 INT · 12 rush yd11%21.1
  2. RBChase Brown13 car · 78 yd   6-38 rec18%15.7
  3. WRTee Higgins5-74 on 8 tgt57%15.2
  4. WRJa'Marr Chase6-92 on 12 tgt18%13.5
  5. WRAndrei Iosivas4-46 on 6 tgt36%9.3
BUFBills
  1. QBJosh Allen247 pass yd · 2.1 TD · 1.1 INT · 28 rush yd71%27.2
  2. RBJames Cook24 car · 129 yd   2-25 rec47%20.5
  3. TEDalton Kincaid3-50 on 4 tgt36%9.2
  4. WRKhalil Shakir4-43 on 6 tgt12%7.2
  5. WRKeon Coleman2-28 on 4 tgt42%7.1
LA@ARILA −10.7O/U 50.5LA 31–20 ARI
LA 79%ARI 21%
LARams
  1. QBMatthew Stafford209 pass yd · 3.0 TD · 0.4 INT6%20.8
  2. RBKyren Williams18 car · 90 yd   1-6 rec76%18.6
  3. WRDavante Adams4-46 on 6 tgt78%15.6
  4. WRPuka Nacua5-67 on 8 tgt41%12.9
  5. RBBlake Corum11 car · 52 yd   0-2 rec31%7.8
ARICardinals
  1. QBJacoby Brissett331 pass yd · 1.5 TD · 0.9 INT · 14 rush yd15%20.8
  2. TETrey McBride9-78 on 11 tgt52%16.6
  3. WRMarvin Harrison Jr.6-72 on 11 tgt45%13.8
  4. WRMichael Wilson7-89 on 11 tgt11%13.3
  5. RBBam Knight8 car · 25 yd   3-23 rec35%8.9
IND@JAXJAX −0.9O/U 49.5IND 24–25 JAX
IND 47%JAX 53%
INDColts
  1. QBDaniel Jones225 pass yd · 1.7 TD · 1.2 INT · 17 rush yd20%17.7
  2. RBJonathan Taylor20 car · 89 yd   2-22 rec57%17.4
  3. WRAlec Pierce4-58 on 7 tgt38%10.6
  4. TETyler Warren5-50 on 7 tgt29%9.8
  5. WRMichael Pittman4-40 on 7 tgt26%7.8
JAXJaguars
  1. QBTrevor Lawrence197 pass yd · 1.2 TD · 1.3 INT · 24 rush yd41%17.0
  2. RBTravis Etienne17 car · 61 yd   2-16 rec57%13.8
  3. WRJakobi Meyers4-51 on 5 tgt37%9.9
  4. TEBrenton Strange4-51 on 4 tgt32%9.2
  5. WRParker Washington4-45 on 6 tgt34%9.0
SEA@ATLSEA −9.0O/U 47.1SEA 28–19 ATL
SEA 75%ATL 25%
SEASeahawks
  1. QBSam Darnold199 pass yd · 1.6 TD · 1.1 INT5%14.1
  2. WRJaxon Smith-Njigba6-84 on 8 tgt48%15.4
  3. RBKenneth Walker III15 car · 70 yd   2-17 rec34%12.1
  4. RBZach Charbonnet12 car · 54 yd   0-3 rec54%10.6
  5. WRTory Horton2-32 on 4 tgt48%8.4
ATLFalcons
  1. QBMichael Penix Jr.183 pass yd · 1.0 TD · 0.2 INT4%11.9
  2. WRDrake London7-90 on 11 tgt63%18.4
  3. RBBijan Robinson15 car · 61 yd   4-32 rec39%14.5
  4. TEKyle Pitts4-48 on 6 tgt10%7.5
  5. RBTyler Allgeier6 car · 20 yd   1-6 rec37%5.8
CHI@GBGB −5.3O/U 46.2CHI 20–26 GB
CHI 35%GB 65%
CHIBears
  1. QBCaleb Williams207 pass yd · 1.3 TD · 0.2 INT · 30 rush yd18%17.3
  2. RBKyle Monangai15 car · 64 yd   1-8 rec48%11.7
  3. RBD'Andre Swift14 car · 61 yd   2-13 rec27%10.4
  4. TEColston Loveland4-43 on 6 tgt37%9.2
  5. WRDJ Moore3-37 on 5 tgt31%7.6
GBPackers
  1. QBJordan Love202 pass yd · 1.6 TD · 0.3 INT · 12 rush yd8%15.8
  2. RBJosh Jacobs17 car · 87 yd   2-15 rec49%15.4
  3. WRChristian Watson3-56 on 6 tgt42%10.7
  4. RBEmanuel Wilson11 car · 47 yd   1-6 rec49%9.8
  5. WRDontayvion Wicks3-45 on 5 tgt36%8.8
PIT@BALBAL −2.6O/U 45.5PIT 21–24 BAL
PIT 42%BAL 58%
PITSteelers
  1. QBAaron Rodgers154 pass yd · 0.7 TD · 0.4 INT3%9.3
  2. RBJaylen Warren13 car · 53 yd   2-10 rec50%11.3
  3. RBKenny Gainwell5 car · 25 yd   4-35 rec31%10.3
  4. WRDK Metcalf4-33 on 7 tgt12%6.1
  5. TEDarnell Washington3-35 on 4 tgt9%5.5
BALRavens
  1. QBLamar Jackson186 pass yd · 1.0 TD · 0.6 INT · 22 rush yd9%13.7
  2. RBDerrick Henry18 car · 85 yd   2-12 rec58%15.8
  3. TEMark Andrews3-29 on 4 tgt42%8.1
  4. WRZay Flowers4-50 on 6 tgt12%8.0
  5. TEIsaiah Likely3-36 on 4 tgt10%5.6
WAS@MINMIN −1.1O/U 43.3WAS 21–22 MIN
WAS 47%MIN 53%
🏟 dome
WASCommanders
  1. QBMarcus Mariota245 pass yd · 1.4 TD · 0.6 INT · 36 rush yd11%19.2
  2. WRTerry McLaurin8-115 on 14 tgt55%20.2
  3. WRDeebo Samuel Sr.5-58 on 7 tgt36%11.1
  4. TEZach Ertz6-57 on 8 tgt13%9.3
  5. RBChris Rodriguez Jr.11 car · 44 yd   0-2 rec45%8.3
MINVikings
  1. QBMax Brosmer191 pass yd · 0.8 TD · 1.8 INT4%9.7
  2. RBAaron Jones10 car · 49 yd   3-25 rec25%10.6
  3. WRJustin Jefferson5-55 on 8 tgt22%9.4
  4. WRJordan Addison3-42 on 6 tgt22%7.3
  5. TET.J. Hockenson3-34 on 4 tgt20%6.5
MIA@NYJMIA −1.4O/U 43.1MIA 22–21 NYJ
MIA 54%NYJ 46%
MIADolphins
  1. QBTua Tagovailoa185 pass yd · 0.7 TD · 0.9 INT5%10.3
  2. RBDe'Von Achane20 car · 114 yd   4-34 rec55%21.7
  3. WRJaylen Waddle4-63 on 7 tgt25%10.1
  4. WRMalik Washington2-30 on 3 tgt21%6.1
  5. TEGreg Dulcich2-24 on 4 tgt10%4.3
NYJJets
  1. QBTyrod Taylor220 pass yd · 1.3 TD · 0.5 INT · 30 rush yd30%18.6
  2. RBBreece Hall17 car · 71 yd   2-25 rec34%13.2
  3. WRAdonai Mitchell5-56 on 8 tgt29%10.0
  4. WRJohn Metchie III4-35 on 5 tgt31%7.7
  5. TEMason Taylor3-26 on 4 tgt10%4.7
NO@TBTB −5.9O/U 41.5NO 18–24 TB
NO 33%TB 67%
NOSaints
  1. QBTyler Shough274 pass yd · 1.2 TD · 1.0 INT · 14 rush yd7%16.7
  2. WRChris Olave5-70 on 8 tgt32%12.1
  3. WRRashid Shaheed6-72 on 10 tgt21%11.5
  4. TEJuwan Johnson5-48 on 6 tgt31%9.4
  5. WRDevaughn Vele4-50 on 6 tgt24%8.6
TBBuccaneers
  1. QBBaker Mayfield173 pass yd · 1.7 TD · 0.7 INT · 19 rush yd20%16.4
  2. RBBucky Irving18 car · 72 yd   2-12 rec60%14.8
  3. WREmeka Egbuka5-61 on 9 tgt27%10.4
  4. RBSean Tucker11 car · 52 yd   1-8 rec46%10.3
  5. RBRachaad White8 car · 35 yd   2-15 rec15%7.2
PHI@LACLAC −0.9O/U 41.3PHI 20–21 LAC
PHI 47%LAC 53%
🏟 dome
PHIEagles
  1. QBJalen Hurts194 pass yd · 0.8 TD · 0.4 INT · 30 rush yd41%16.6
  2. WRA.J. Brown6-66 on 9 tgt45%13.2
  3. RBSaquon Barkley18 car · 63 yd   3-20 rec15%10.7
  4. WRDeVonta Smith4-50 on 8 tgt24%8.6
  5. TEDallas Goedert3-31 on 4 tgt10%5.1
LACChargers
  1. QBJustin Herbert165 pass yd · 0.9 TD · 0.6 INT · 24 rush yd20%13.4
  2. RBKimani Vidal17 car · 70 yd   1-8 rec40%11.3
  3. WRLadd McConkey3-46 on 6 tgt32%8.5
  4. WRQuentin Johnston3-32 on 6 tgt32%6.9
  5. WRKeenan Allen3-35 on 5 tgt10%5.5
HOU@KCKC −0.9O/U 40.9HOU 20–21 KC
HOU 47%KC 53%
HOUTexans
  1. QBDavis Mills229 pass yd · 0.9 TD · 0.3 INT · 10 rush yd13%14.5
  2. WRNico Collins7-85 on 10 tgt22%13.4
  3. TEDalton Schultz6-59 on 8 tgt22%10.4
  4. RBWoody Marks15 car · 56 yd   1-8 rec23%8.7
  5. WRJayden Higgins4-41 on 6 tgt28%8.0
KCChiefs
  1. QBPatrick Mahomes252 pass yd · 1.0 TD · 0.9 INT · 12 rush yd6%14.7
  2. WRRashee Rice6-75 on 10 tgt40%13.7
  3. RBKareem Hunt17 car · 62 yd   2-13 rec51%12.5
  4. TETravis Kelce6-54 on 7 tgt36%10.9
  5. WRXavier Worthy3-40 on 6 tgt12%6.7
DEN@LVDEN −9.0O/U 39.4DEN 24–15 LV
DEN 75%LV 25%
🏟 dome
DENBroncos
  1. QBBo Nix219 pass yd · 1.2 TD · 0.9 INT · 14 rush yd8%14.6
  2. RBRJ Harvey8 car · 26 yd   3-21 rec49%10.2
  3. RBJ.K. Dobbins19 car · 74 yd   1-5 rec24%9.9
  4. WRTroy Franklin4-46 on 7 tgt26%8.6
  5. WRCourtland Sutton3-43 on 6 tgt34%8.5
LVRaiders
  1. QBGeno Smith224 pass yd · 1.0 TD · 0.7 INT · 10 rush yd5%13.6
  2. TEBrock Bowers6-74 on 9 tgt48%14.4
  3. RBAshton Jeanty12 car · 33 yd   5-41 rec34%12.6
  4. WRJakobi Meyers4-36 on 6 tgt15%6.5
  5. WRTre Tucker3-32 on 6 tgt16%6.0
TEN@CLECLE −4.9O/U 37.3TEN 16–21 CLE
TEN 36%CLE 64%
TENTitans
  1. QBCam Ward203 pass yd · 0.6 TD · 0.2 INT · 16 rush yd13%12.7
  2. RBTony Pollard10 car · 33 yd   2-14 rec11%6.6
  3. RBTyjae Spears4 car · 10 yd   4-27 rec9%6.6
  4. TEGunnar Helm4-33 on 5 tgt9%5.8
  5. WRElic Ayomanor3-34 on 6 tgt10%5.5
CLEBrowns
  1. QBShedeur Sanders146 pass yd · 0.8 TD · 0.4 INT5%9.5
  2. RBQuinshon Judkins21 car · 82 yd   1-8 rec43%13.1
  3. WRJerry Jeudy4-51 on 6 tgt22%8.4
  4. TEHarold Fannin Jr.4-36 on 6 tgt23%7.2
  5. RBDylan Sampson4 car · 18 yd   1-8 rec14%3.8