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NFL Week 7 2025 – Model Preview

Read this first. These are model projections, not betting advice or predictions. It’s the season opener, so the model is seeded from 2025 form (via Efficiency+ (HFA, recency, regression), 2025 in-season (through wk6)) — the least reliable week of the year: rookies have no data, roles are unsettled, and prior-season spreads run hotter than the market will. No market lines are posted yet, so there are no edges here to bet — just the model’s numbers. For entertainment only. 18+/21+. Problem gambling? BeGambleAware.org (UK) · 1-800-GAMBLER (US).

Model’s Sharpest Reads

projections, no market to beat

Most Confident

Highest projected win probability.

  1. KC over LV 75% win
  2. PIT over CIN 73% win
  3. NE over TEN 71% win
  4. IND over LAC 67% win

Projected Shootouts

Highest projected totals.

  1. TB@DET57.1
  2. WAS@DAL56.4
  3. IND@LAC49.4

Projected Slugfests

Lowest projected totals.

  1. NYG@DEN38.9
  2. ATL@SF41.0
  3. HOU@SEA41.1

TD Magnets

highest anytime-touchdown probability
  1. Jonathan TaylorRBIND v LAC85%
  2. Amon-Ra St. BrownWRDET v TB74%
  3. George PickensWRDAL v WAS71%
  4. Josh JacobsRBGB v ARI71%
  5. Jahmyr GibbsRBDET v TB70%
  6. David MontgomeryRBDET v TB62%
  7. De'Von AchaneRBMIA v CLE61%
  8. Dallas GoedertTEPHI v MIN60%

The Slate

tap any game to expand the full report
TB@DETDET −2.5O/U 57.1TB 27–30 DET
TB 43%DET 57%
🏟 dome
TBBuccaneers
  1. QBBaker Mayfield294 pass yd · 2.6 TD · 0.3 INT · 20 rush yd8%24.5
  2. RBBucky Irving18 car · 63 yd   4-37 rec39%15.2
  3. WREmeka Egbuka4-84 on 7 tgt49%14.8
  4. WRMike Evans5-68 on 10 tgt47%13.2
  5. RBRachaad White10 car · 37 yd   3-14 rec57%11.4
DETLions
  1. QBJared Goff237 pass yd · 3.2 TD · 0.3 INT6%22.9
  2. WRAmon-Ra St. Brown7-75 on 9 tgt74%19.2
  3. RBJahmyr Gibbs16 car · 63 yd   3-20 rec70%16.8
  4. RBDavid Montgomery11 car · 50 yd   1-10 rec62%12.2
  5. TESam LaPorta4-41 on 5 tgt37%9.0
WAS@DALWAS −2.4O/U 56.4WAS 29–27 DAL
WAS 57%DAL 43%
WASCommanders
  1. QBJayden Daniels241 pass yd · 2.9 TD · 0.3 INT · 36 rush yd17%25.5
  2. WRDeebo Samuel Sr.5-58 on 6 tgt50%13.3
  3. RBJacory Croskey-Merritt10 car · 57 yd   1-11 rec52%11.8
  4. WRTerry McLaurin4-66 on 6 tgt20%10.1
  5. RBAustin Ekeler8 car · 34 yd   3-23 rec32%9.4
DALCowboys
  1. QBDak Prescott336 pass yd · 3.1 TD · 0.5 INT · 10 rush yd17%27.7
  2. WRGeorge Pickens6-98 on 9 tgt71%20.2
  3. RBJavonte Williams15 car · 70 yd   4-24 rec59%16.8
  4. WRCeeDee Lamb8-105 on 11 tgt33%16.8
  5. TEJake Ferguson8-72 on 9 tgt60%16.5
IND@LACIND −6.0O/U 49.4IND 28–22 LAC
IND 67%LAC 33%
🏟 dome
INDColts
  1. QBDaniel Jones195 pass yd · 1.3 TD · 0.7 INT · 12 rush yd30%15.6
  2. RBJonathan Taylor21 car · 130 yd   3-17 rec85%27.5
  3. TETyler Warren4-44 on 6 tgt40%9.7
  4. WRMichael Pittman4-37 on 6 tgt44%9.0
  5. WRJosh Downs4-37 on 6 tgt24%7.3
LACChargers
  1. QBJustin Herbert246 pass yd · 1.4 TD · 1.1 INT · 20 rush yd7%16.9
  2. WRQuentin Johnston6-76 on 9 tgt39%13.8
  3. RBOmarion Hampton12 car · 57 yd   4-26 rec39%13.3
  4. WRKeenan Allen6-57 on 9 tgt34%11.2
  5. WRLadd McConkey5-53 on 7 tgt32%10.1
NO@CHICHI −4.8O/U 48.4NO 22–27 CHI
NO 36%CHI 64%
NOSaints
  1. QBSpencer Rattler240 pass yd · 1.5 TD · 0.3 INT · 22 rush yd7%18.0
  2. WRChris Olave6-78 on 11 tgt24%12.7
  3. RBAlvin Kamara13 car · 62 yd   4-29 rec14%12.2
  4. WRRashid Shaheed4-64 on 6 tgt31%10.8
  5. TEJuwan Johnson4-32 on 5 tgt22%6.8
CHIBears
  1. QBCaleb Williams242 pass yd · 2.5 TD · 0.4 INT · 17 rush yd25%22.9
  2. WRRome Odunze4-74 on 7 tgt60%15.0
  3. RBD'Andre Swift14 car · 56 yd   3-25 rec56%14.5
  4. WRDJ Moore4-42 on 5 tgt28%8.5
  5. WROlamide Zaccheaus3-35 on 5 tgt14%6.3
PIT@CINPIT −8.2O/U 47.5PIT 28–20 CIN
PIT 73%CIN 27%
PITSteelers
  1. QBAaron Rodgers197 pass yd · 1.9 TD · 0.8 INT8%16.1
  2. RBKenny Gainwell10 car · 46 yd   4-24 rec58%14.2
  3. RBJaylen Warren16 car · 64 yd   3-36 rec25%13.3
  4. WRDK Metcalf4-60 on 6 tgt57%12.8
  5. WRCalvin Austin III2-26 on 3 tgt25%5.4
CINBengals
  1. QBJoe Flacco287 pass yd · 1.6 TD · 0.5 INT0%17.3
  2. WRJa'Marr Chase9-92 on 11 tgt51%17.9
  3. WRTee Higgins4-44 on 7 tgt30%8.3
  4. TETanner Hudson4-35 on 5 tgt36%8.1
  5. RBChase Brown9 car · 29 yd   4-24 rec12%8.0
CAR@NYJCAR −1.6O/U 46.4CAR 24–22 NYJ
CAR 55%NYJ 45%
CARPanthers
  1. QBBryce Young208 pass yd · 2.2 TD · 0.6 INT14%18.2
  2. RBRico Dowdle16 car · 85 yd   2-13 rec45%14.3
  3. WRTetairoa McMillan4-74 on 8 tgt34%12.1
  4. RBChuba Hubbard13 car · 52 yd   3-17 rec32%10.7
  5. TEJa'Tavion Sanders4-29 on 5 tgt18%6.2
NYJJets
  1. QBJustin Fields156 pass yd · 1.0 TD · 0.1 INT · 40 rush yd23%15.6
  2. WRGarrett Wilson5-63 on 10 tgt44%12.4
  3. RBBreece Hall14 car · 60 yd   3-18 rec14%10.3
  4. TEMason Taylor4-42 on 6 tgt11%7.2
  5. WRJosh Reynolds2-21 on 3 tgt9%3.6
PHI@MINMIN −3.2O/U 46.0PHI 21–25 MIN
PHI 41%MIN 59%
🏟 dome
PHIEagles
  1. QBJalen Hurts192 pass yd · 1.2 TD · 0.2 INT · 28 rush yd39%18.2
  2. TEDallas Goedert5-41 on 7 tgt60%11.9
  3. RBSaquon Barkley15 car · 54 yd   3-19 rec41%11.8
  4. WRA.J. Brown5-57 on 9 tgt23%9.6
  5. WRDeVonta Smith5-58 on 7 tgt21%9.5
MINVikings
  1. QBCarson Wentz219 pass yd · 1.4 TD · 0.5 INT · 10 rush yd7%15.3
  2. RBJordan Mason14 car · 66 yd   2-13 rec56%13.7
  3. WRJustin Jefferson5-79 on 8 tgt13%11.4
  4. WRJordan Addison4-57 on 7 tgt36%10.4
  5. RBZavier Scott5 car · 20 yd   2-22 rec26%7.2
GB@ARIGB −0.9O/U 44.7GB 23–22 ARI
GB 53%ARI 47%
GBPackers
  1. QBJordan Love237 pass yd · 1.4 TD · 0.4 INT · 20 rush yd9%17.0
  2. RBJosh Jacobs20 car · 76 yd   4-35 rec71%20.2
  3. WRRomeo Doubs4-38 on 6 tgt52%10.1
  4. TETucker Kraft4-52 on 4 tgt33%9.4
  5. WRMatthew Golden3-37 on 4 tgt14%6.8
ARICardinals
  1. QBKyler Murray177 pass yd · 0.9 TD · 0.6 INT · 30 rush yd21%14.5
  2. TETrey McBride7-50 on 9 tgt35%11.0
  3. RBJames Conner10 car · 30 yd   2-12 rec36%8.0
  4. RBMichael Carter9 car · 29 yd   3-15 rec31%7.9
  5. RBTrey Benson7 car · 26 yd   4-20 rec17%7.8
LV@KCKC −8.9O/U 44.1LV 18–27 KC
LV 25%KC 75%
LVRaiders
  1. QBGeno Smith216 pass yd · 0.9 TD · 2.0 INT · 14 rush yd6%12.0
  2. RBAshton Jeanty15 car · 73 yd   3-19 rec40%13.7
  3. WRTre Tucker5-54 on 6 tgt36%10.9
  4. TEAlbert Okwuegbunam6-51 on 6 tgt20%9.1
  5. TEBrock Bowers6-53 on 7 tgt13%9.0
KCChiefs
  1. QBPatrick Mahomes221 pass yd · 1.7 TD · 0.3 INT · 32 rush yd44%22.1
  2. WRXavier Worthy4-48 on 6 tgt34%10.2
  3. WRTyquan Thornton3-47 on 5 tgt45%9.7
  4. RBKareem Hunt10 car · 39 yd   1-5 rec50%8.9
  5. WRMarquise Brown4-39 on 5 tgt41%8.9
MIA@CLEMIA −2.4O/U 43.5MIA 23–21 CLE
MIA 57%CLE 43%
MIADolphins
  1. QBTua Tagovailoa210 pass yd · 2.3 TD · 0.7 INT4%17.7
  2. RBDe'Von Achane14 car · 54 yd   5-28 rec61%16.4
  3. WRJaylen Waddle5-72 on 7 tgt41%12.9
  4. WRTyreek Hill5-75 on 8 tgt30%12.3
  5. TEDarren Waller3-31 on 4 tgt52%8.9
CLEBrowns
  1. QBJoe Flacco228 pass yd · 0.7 TD · 1.0 INT4%11.8
  2. RBQuinshon Judkins16 car · 88 yd   2-16 rec34%13.9
  3. TEHarold Fannin Jr.5-48 on 6 tgt21%8.7
  4. TEDavid Njoku5-48 on 6 tgt21%8.5
  5. WRJerry Jeudy4-44 on 8 tgt10%7.0
NE@TENNE −7.3O/U 43.3NE 25–18 TEN
NE 71%TEN 29%
NEPatriots
  1. QBDrake Maye225 pass yd · 1.4 TD · 0.3 INT · 26 rush yd34%19.5
  2. WRStefon Diggs5-64 on 6 tgt10%9.4
  3. RBRhamondre Stevenson10 car · 38 yd   2-16 rec39%9.3
  4. TEHunter Henry3-30 on 4 tgt39%7.6
  5. RBTreVeyon Henderson8 car · 32 yd   2-12 rec26%7.1
TENTitans
  1. QBCam Ward256 pass yd · 0.7 TD · 0.9 INT · 10 rush yd5%13.3
  2. RBTony Pollard13 car · 44 yd   2-16 rec28%9.2
  3. WRElic Ayomanor4-46 on 6 tgt26%8.3
  4. WRCalvin Ridley3-59 on 6 tgt8%8.0
  5. TEChig Okonkwo4-50 on 6 tgt9%7.8
LA@JAXJAX −0.3O/U 42.0LA 21–21 JAX
LA 49%JAX 51%
LARams
  1. QBMatthew Stafford288 pass yd · 1.9 TD · 0.6 INT5%19.2
  2. WRPuka Nacua8-89 on 11 tgt35%15.5
  3. RBKyren Williams15 car · 59 yd   3-30 rec46%14.2
  4. WRDavante Adams4-66 on 9 tgt41%12.0
  5. TETyler Higbee3-31 on 4 tgt20%5.8
JAXJaguars
  1. QBTrevor Lawrence211 pass yd · 1.1 TD · 0.8 INT · 18 rush yd27%15.7
  2. RBTravis Etienne15 car · 57 yd   2-13 rec42%11.3
  3. WRBrian Thomas Jr.5-61 on 8 tgt22%10.1
  4. WRParker Washington3-32 on 5 tgt19%6.0
  5. WRDyami Brown3-28 on 5 tgt22%5.9
HOU@SEASEA −0.4O/U 41.1HOU 20–21 SEA
HOU 49%SEA 51%
HOUTexans
  1. QBC.J. Stroud213 pass yd · 1.6 TD · 0.7 INT · 18 rush yd7%16.4
  2. WRNico Collins5-65 on 8 tgt44%12.5
  3. RBNick Chubb11 car · 38 yd   2-14 rec36%8.8
  4. RBWoody Marks8 car · 27 yd   2-19 rec30%7.6
  5. TEDalton Schultz4-38 on 6 tgt12%6.8
SEASeahawks
  1. QBSam Darnold236 pass yd · 1.5 TD · 0.7 INT3%15.4
  2. WRJaxon Smith-Njigba6-96 on 9 tgt41%15.8
  3. RBKenneth Walker III14 car · 59 yd   1-6 rec42%10.3
  4. WRCooper Kupp4-45 on 6 tgt19%7.6
  5. TEAJ Barner3-27 on 3 tgt38%7.1
ATL@SFSF −0.2O/U 41.0ATL 20–21 SF
ATL 49%SF 51%
ATLFalcons
  1. QBMichael Penix Jr.211 pass yd · 0.9 TD · 0.7 INT6%12.3
  2. RBBijan Robinson18 car · 104 yd   5-40 rec41%19.9
  3. WRDrake London6-95 on 10 tgt36%15.4
  4. RBTyler Allgeier11 car · 41 yd   1-4 rec44%8.4
  5. TEKyle Pitts4-34 on 5 tgt22%6.7
SF49ers
  1. QBMac Jones265 pass yd · 1.6 TD · 0.9 INT · 12 rush yd8%17.8
  2. RBChristian McCaffrey17 car · 60 yd   7-56 rec52%19.6
  3. WRRicky Pearsall5-60 on 7 tgt14%9.3
  4. WRKendrick Bourne4-61 on 7 tgt9%8.7
  5. TEJake Tonges4-34 on 6 tgt30%7.6
NYG@DENDEN −5.0O/U 38.9NYG 17–22 DEN
NYG 35%DEN 65%
NYGGiants
  1. QBRussell Wilson139 pass yd · 0.5 TD · 0.5 INT · 10 rush yd4%8.3
  2. RBCam Skattebo15 car · 61 yd   4-34 rec49%15.5
  3. WRMalik Nabers4-54 on 8 tgt36%10.3
  4. WRWan'Dale Robinson4-48 on 7 tgt26%8.9
  5. WRLil'Jordan Humphrey5-51 on 8 tgt19%8.6
DENBroncos
  1. QBBo Nix203 pass yd · 1.2 TD · 0.4 INT · 22 rush yd18%15.8
  2. RBJ.K. Dobbins16 car · 95 yd   1-6 rec47%14.3
  3. WRCourtland Sutton4-59 on 6 tgt29%10.0
  4. WRTroy Franklin4-43 on 6 tgt21%7.8
  5. RBRJ Harvey6 car · 25 yd   3-19 rec20%7.1