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NFL Week 11 2025 – Model Preview

Read this first. These are model projections, not betting advice or predictions. It’s the season opener, so the model is seeded from 2025 form (via Efficiency+ (HFA, recency, regression), 2025 in-season (through wk10)) — the least reliable week of the year: rookies have no data, roles are unsettled, and prior-season spreads run hotter than the market will. No market lines are posted yet, so there are no edges here to bet — just the model’s numbers. For entertainment only. 18+/21+. Problem gambling? BeGambleAware.org (UK) · 1-800-GAMBLER (US).

Model’s Sharpest Reads

projections, no market to beat

Most Confident

Highest projected win probability.

  1. HOU over TEN 78% win
  2. NE over NYJ 74% win
  3. PIT over CIN 71% win
  4. MIA over WAS 68% win

Projected Shootouts

Highest projected totals.

  1. CIN@PIT57.5
  2. DAL@LV50.3
  3. CHI@MIN50.1

Projected Slugfests

Lowest projected totals.

  1. CAR@ATL38.6
  2. KC@DEN39.2
  3. HOU@TEN42.2

TD Magnets

highest anytime-touchdown probability
  1. Josh JacobsRBGB v NYG77%
  2. Davante AdamsWRLA v SEA73%
  3. De'Von AchaneRBMIA v WAS71%
  4. Trey McBrideTEARI v SF70%
  5. Jahmyr GibbsRBDET v PHI69%
  6. Brock BowersTELV v DAL68%
  7. Kyren WilliamsRBLA v SEA67%
  8. Christian McCaffreyRBSF v ARI64%

The Slate

tap any game to expand the full report
CIN@PITPIT −7.4O/U 57.5CIN 25–32 PIT
CIN 29%PIT 71%
CINBengals
  1. QBJoe Flacco352 pass yd · 2.8 TD · 0.7 INT15%26.2
  2. WRJa'Marr Chase12-127 on 17 tgt49%22.9
  3. WRTee Higgins5-80 on 8 tgt61%16.3
  4. RBChase Brown10 car · 51 yd   4-29 rec42%13.5
  5. TENoah Fant3-35 on 4 tgt35%7.6
PITSteelers
  1. QBAaron Rodgers221 pass yd · 3.0 TD · 0.9 INT4%20.4
  2. RBJaylen Warren16 car · 89 yd   2-17 rec51%16.0
  3. WRDK Metcalf4-50 on 6 tgt39%9.6
  4. TEPat Freiermuth2-34 on 3 tgt43%8.0
  5. WRCalvin Austin III4-41 on 6 tgt17%7.0
DAL@LVDAL −2.5O/U 50.3DAL 26–24 LV
DAL 57%LV 43%
🏟 dome
DALCowboys
  1. QBDak Prescott227 pass yd · 1.6 TD · 0.7 INT · 18 rush yd10%17.4
  2. WRCeeDee Lamb6-84 on 10 tgt37%14.5
  3. WRGeorge Pickens6-89 on 8 tgt30%14.3
  4. RBJavonte Williams16 car · 63 yd   2-10 rec60%13.9
  5. TEJake Ferguson3-31 on 4 tgt46%8.4
LVRaiders
  1. QBGeno Smith202 pass yd · 1.6 TD · 0.6 INT8%15.6
  2. TEBrock Bowers7-68 on 8 tgt68%17.5
  3. RBAshton Jeanty15 car · 58 yd   3-24 rec51%14.1
  4. WRTre Tucker4-48 on 5 tgt11%7.6
  5. WRJakobi Meyers4-44 on 5 tgt15%7.4
CHI@MINMIN −0.8O/U 50.1CHI 25–25 MIN
CHI 48%MIN 52%
🏟 dome
CHIBears
  1. QBCaleb Williams256 pass yd · 1.4 TD · 0.4 INT · 25 rush yd30%20.1
  2. RBD'Andre Swift14 car · 76 yd   2-20 rec52%15.2
  3. RBKyle Monangai12 car · 57 yd   1-9 rec38%10.1
  4. WRRome Odunze4-62 on 7 tgt24%9.7
  5. WRDJ Moore3-53 on 5 tgt17%8.5
MINVikings
  1. QBCarson Wentz266 pass yd · 1.1 TD · 1.6 INT8%15.2
  2. WRJustin Jefferson6-78 on 10 tgt30%12.9
  3. WRJordan Addison4-71 on 8 tgt29%11.6
  4. RBAaron Jones8 car · 46 yd   3-22 rec34%10.8
  5. WRJalen Nailor2-44 on 4 tgt22%7.0
SEA@LALA −2.3O/U 49.6SEA 24–26 LA
SEA 43%LA 57%
🏟 dome
SEASeahawks
  1. QBSam Darnold225 pass yd · 1.6 TD · 0.6 INT7%15.6
  2. WRJaxon Smith-Njigba7-115 on 11 tgt53%19.8
  3. RBZach Charbonnet11 car · 39 yd   1-6 rec49%8.9
  4. RBKenneth Walker III13 car · 44 yd   1-5 rec14%6.2
  5. WRTory Horton2-19 on 3 tgt29%4.8
LARams
  1. QBMatthew Stafford201 pass yd · 2.8 TD · 0.1 INT9%20.4
  2. WRDavante Adams4-45 on 8 tgt73%14.5
  3. RBKyren Williams16 car · 60 yd   1-12 rec67%14.5
  4. WRPuka Nacua4-43 on 6 tgt43%9.7
  5. TETyler Higbee3-30 on 4 tgt36%7.2
WAS@MIAMIA −6.3O/U 49.1WAS 21–28 MIA
WAS 32%MIA 68%
WASCommanders
  1. QBJayden Daniels199 pass yd · 1.6 TD · 0.5 INT · 44 rush yd42%21.5
  2. TEZach Ertz5-51 on 6 tgt32%9.9
  3. WRTerry McLaurin3-36 on 4 tgt31%7.4
  4. WRDeebo Samuel Sr.4-32 on 6 tgt25%7.3
  5. RBJacory Croskey-Merritt11 car · 42 yd   1-6 rec10%5.9
MIADolphins
  1. QBTua Tagovailoa203 pass yd · 1.9 TD · 1.2 INT5%15.4
  2. RBDe'Von Achane18 car · 109 yd   4-37 rec71%24.3
  3. WRJaylen Waddle5-77 on 6 tgt36%12.7
  4. WRMalik Washington4-36 on 4 tgt35%8.4
  5. TEGreg Dulcich3-38 on 4 tgt19%6.7
DET@PHIDET −1.7O/U 49.1DET 25–24 PHI
DET 55%PHI 45%
DETLions
  1. QBJared Goff231 pass yd · 1.7 TD · 0.3 INT3%16.3
  2. RBJahmyr Gibbs15 car · 80 yd   2-26 rec69%18.9
  3. WRAmon-Ra St. Brown6-67 on 10 tgt43%13.3
  4. WRJameson Williams3-50 on 5 tgt46%10.4
  5. RBDavid Montgomery11 car · 39 yd   2-18 rec32%8.9
PHIEagles
  1. QBJalen Hurts230 pass yd · 2.6 TD · 0.4 INT · 17 rush yd22%22.4
  2. WRDeVonta Smith5-87 on 8 tgt40%14.4
  3. RBSaquon Barkley16 car · 70 yd   2-14 rec40%12.7
  4. WRA.J. Brown4-62 on 6 tgt42%11.2
  5. TEDallas Goedert4-46 on 6 tgt48%10.7
SF@ARIARI −0.5O/U 48.6SF 24–25 ARI
SF 48%ARI 52%
SF49ers
  1. QBMac Jones237 pass yd · 1.2 TD · 0.9 INT · 13 rush yd8%15.2
  2. RBChristian McCaffrey18 car · 71 yd   6-52 rec64%21.6
  3. TEGeorge Kittle4-37 on 5 tgt37%8.5
  4. WRJauan Jennings4-42 on 6 tgt33%8.5
  5. TEJake Tonges3-29 on 4 tgt31%6.6
ARICardinals
  1. QBJacoby Brissett273 pass yd · 2.5 TD · 0.3 INT · 20 rush yd22%24.0
  2. TETrey McBride7-70 on 11 tgt70%18.1
  3. WRMarvin Harrison Jr.4-58 on 8 tgt39%10.9
  4. RBBam Knight11 car · 39 yd   2-14 rec31%8.6
  5. WRMichael Wilson4-44 on 5 tgt11%6.9
NYJ@NENE −8.9O/U 48.6NYJ 20–29 NE
NYJ 26%NE 74%
NYJJets
  1. QBTyrod Taylor163 pass yd · 0.7 TD · 1.3 INT · 13 rush yd10%9.8
  2. RBBreece Hall16 car · 54 yd   2-13 rec40%10.6
  3. WRJosh Reynolds4-44 on 6 tgt15%7.3
  4. TEMason Taylor3-27 on 4 tgt22%5.7
  5. WRGarrett Wilson3-32 on 6 tgt14%5.6
NEPatriots
  1. QBDrake Maye212 pass yd · 3.0 TD · 0.5 INT · 34 rush yd12%24.2
  2. RBTreVeyon Henderson11 car · 62 yd   1-8 rec44%11.0
  3. RBRhamondre Stevenson17 car · 58 yd   1-7 rec45%10.5
  4. WRStefon Diggs3-37 on 5 tgt43%8.8
  5. WRKayshon Boutte2-37 on 3 tgt47%8.5
TB@BUFBUF −2.2O/U 48.5TB 23–25 BUF
TB 43%BUF 57%
TBBuccaneers
  1. QBBaker Mayfield232 pass yd · 1.3 TD · 0.3 INT3%14.6
  2. WRTez Johnson4-50 on 6 tgt53%11.4
  3. WREmeka Egbuka4-68 on 10 tgt28%11.1
  4. RBRachaad White12 car · 55 yd   3-16 rec30%10.8
  5. TECade Otton6-60 on 8 tgt16%10.0
BUFBills
  1. QBJosh Allen227 pass yd · 1.4 TD · 0.9 INT · 23 rush yd52%20.5
  2. RBJames Cook20 car · 114 yd   1-10 rec48%17.0
  3. WRKhalil Shakir5-53 on 7 tgt27%9.7
  4. TEDalton Kincaid3-33 on 4 tgt28%6.7
  5. WRKeon Coleman3-30 on 5 tgt24%6.0
LAC@JAXLAC −3.0O/U 47.6LAC 25–22 JAX
LAC 59%JAX 41%
LACChargers
  1. QBJustin Herbert257 pass yd · 2.8 TD · 0.9 INT · 31 rush yd22%25.0
  2. RBKimani Vidal18 car · 71 yd   2-14 rec48%13.4
  3. WRLadd McConkey5-70 on 9 tgt46%13.4
  4. TEOronde Gadsden II5-69 on 6 tgt36%12.1
  5. WRQuentin Johnston4-42 on 7 tgt45%9.6
JAXJaguars
  1. QBTrevor Lawrence218 pass yd · 0.9 TD · 0.7 INT · 21 rush yd31%16.1
  2. RBTravis Etienne14 car · 60 yd   3-23 rec30%12.0
  3. WRBrian Thomas Jr.4-51 on 8 tgt30%9.4
  4. WRParker Washington4-47 on 8 tgt28%9.3
  5. RBBhayshul Tuten5 car · 21 yd   1-7 rec21%4.8
GB@NYGGB −3.5O/U 44.9GB 24–21 NYG
GB 60%NYG 40%
GBPackers
  1. QBJordan Love230 pass yd · 1.1 TD · 0.3 INT · 16 rush yd8%15.1
  2. RBJosh Jacobs17 car · 87 yd   3-21 rec77%21.2
  3. TETucker Kraft4-47 on 6 tgt55%11.3
  4. WRRomeo Doubs4-54 on 7 tgt11%8.3
  5. WRChristian Watson2-45 on 4 tgt11%6.4
NYGGiants
  1. QBJaxson Dart193 pass yd · 1.1 TD · 0.2 INT · 39 rush yd59%21.2
  2. RBCam Skattebo12 car · 47 yd   3-16 rec64%13.7
  3. WRWan'Dale Robinson6-66 on 9 tgt22%11.3
  4. TETheo Johnson4-36 on 6 tgt31%7.9
  5. WRDarius Slayton4-50 on 6 tgt12%7.6
BAL@CLEBAL −4.4O/U 43.0BAL 24–19 CLE
BAL 63%CLE 37%
BALRavens
  1. QBLamar Jackson177 pass yd · 2.5 TD · 0.2 INT · 28 rush yd16%20.5
  2. RBDerrick Henry22 car · 86 yd   1-6 rec47%13.7
  3. WRZay Flowers5-63 on 7 tgt14%10.0
  4. TEMark Andrews3-24 on 4 tgt43%7.6
  5. WRRashod Bateman2-22 on 3 tgt17%4.1
CLEBrowns
  1. QBDillon Gabriel184 pass yd · 0.9 TD · 0.5 INT · 14 rush yd6%12.4
  2. TEHarold Fannin Jr.6-70 on 8 tgt26%11.9
  3. RBQuinshon Judkins16 car · 58 yd   1-8 rec45%10.9
  4. TEDavid Njoku4-38 on 4 tgt34%8.1
  5. WRJerry Jeudy4-42 on 8 tgt23%7.8
HOU@TENHOU −10.6O/U 42.2HOU 26–16 TEN
HOU 78%TEN 22%
HOUTexans
  1. QBDavis Mills224 pass yd · 1.4 TD · 0.5 INT · 12 rush yd22%16.7
  2. WRNico Collins6-91 on 11 tgt17%13.4
  3. RBWoody Marks13 car · 57 yd   2-17 rec44%12.0
  4. TEDalton Schultz6-53 on 7 tgt30%10.3
  5. WRXavier Hutchinson3-42 on 4 tgt27%7.5
TENTitans
  1. QBCam Ward219 pass yd · 0.6 TD · 1.0 INT2%10.6
  2. RBTyjae Spears6 car · 23 yd   3-21 rec17%7.0
  3. WRChimere Dike3-39 on 5 tgt18%6.8
  4. RBTony Pollard8 car · 28 yd   2-18 rec10%6.4
  5. WRElic Ayomanor3-41 on 7 tgt9%6.3
KC@DENKC −0.7O/U 39.2KC 20–19 DEN
KC 52%DEN 48%
KCChiefs
  1. QBPatrick Mahomes238 pass yd · 1.5 TD · 0.6 INT · 22 rush yd19%18.4
  2. WRRashee Rice6-56 on 9 tgt54%13.7
  3. TETravis Kelce4-63 on 6 tgt23%9.9
  4. RBIsiah Pacheco13 car · 48 yd   1-8 rec30%8.3
  5. RBKareem Hunt8 car · 28 yd   1-6 rec35%6.4
DENBroncos
  1. QBBo Nix212 pass yd · 1.4 TD · 0.9 INT · 19 rush yd23%16.4
  2. WRTroy Franklin5-39 on 8 tgt46%10.3
  3. RBJ.K. Dobbins15 car · 72 yd   1-6 rec11%9.0
  4. RBRJ Harvey4 car · 15 yd   3-20 rec40%7.9
  5. WRCourtland Sutton4-39 on 6 tgt18%6.9
CAR@ATLATL −1.9O/U 38.6CAR 18–20 ATL
CAR 44%ATL 56%
CARPanthers
  1. QBBryce Young148 pass yd · 1.0 TD · 0.9 INT5%10.4
  2. RBRico Dowdle19 car · 103 yd   2-17 rec45%16.6
  3. WRTetairoa McMillan4-55 on 7 tgt27%9.5
  4. RBChuba Hubbard8 car · 31 yd   1-8 rec21%5.8
  5. WRXavier Legette3-30 on 4 tgt15%5.4
ATLFalcons
  1. QBMichael Penix Jr.225 pass yd · 1.2 TD · 0.1 INT5%14.6
  2. WRDrake London7-102 on 12 tgt62%19.4
  3. RBBijan Robinson15 car · 79 yd   5-30 rec34%15.8
  4. TEKyle Pitts5-54 on 7 tgt11%8.7
  5. RBTyler Allgeier6 car · 28 yd   0-3 rec42%6.5