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NFL Week 10 2025 – Model Preview

Read this first. These are model projections, not betting advice or predictions. It’s the season opener, so the model is seeded from 2025 form (via Efficiency+ (HFA, recency, regression), 2025 in-season (through wk9)) — the least reliable week of the year: rookies have no data, roles are unsettled, and prior-season spreads run hotter than the market will. No market lines are posted yet, so there are no edges here to bet — just the model’s numbers. For entertainment only. 18+/21+. Problem gambling? BeGambleAware.org (UK) · 1-800-GAMBLER (US).

Model’s Sharpest Reads

projections, no market to beat

Most Confident

Highest projected win probability.

  1. IND over ATL 82% win
  2. DEN over LV 81% win
  3. DET over WAS 73% win
  4. BUF over MIA 72% win

Projected Shootouts

Highest projected totals.

  1. NYG@CHI55.3
  2. DET@WAS50.4
  3. BUF@MIA49.0

Projected Slugfests

Lowest projected totals.

  1. NO@CAR39.0
  2. CLE@NYJ40.8
  3. JAX@HOU41.2

TD Magnets

highest anytime-touchdown probability
  1. Jonathan TaylorRBIND v ATL92%
  2. Brock BowersTELV v DEN76%
  3. Josh JacobsRBGB v PHI76%
  4. Cam SkatteboRBNYG v CHI68%
  5. Davante AdamsWRLA v SF64%
  6. Drake LondonWRATL v IND64%
  7. D'Andre SwiftRBCHI v NYG64%
  8. Christian McCaffreyRBSF v LA60%

The Slate

tap any game to expand the full report
NYG@CHICHI −3.4O/U 55.3NYG 26–29 CHI
NYG 40%CHI 60%
NYGGiants
  1. QBJaxson Dart256 pass yd · 2.5 TD · 0.8 INT · 38 rush yd54%28.1
  2. RBCam Skattebo13 car · 63 yd   3-26 rec68%17.3
  3. WRWan'Dale Robinson6-77 on 8 tgt27%12.6
  4. TETheo Johnson4-40 on 6 tgt54%10.7
  5. WRDarius Slayton4-54 on 6 tgt15%8.2
CHIBears
  1. QBCaleb Williams230 pass yd · 1.3 TD · 0.4 INT · 18 rush yd25%17.6
  2. RBD'Andre Swift15 car · 105 yd   2-19 rec64%19.2
  3. RBKyle Monangai13 car · 88 yd   2-14 rec37%13.8
  4. WRDJ Moore4-53 on 6 tgt24%9.6
  5. WROlamide Zaccheaus4-38 on 6 tgt30%8.2
DET@WASDET −8.2O/U 50.4DET 29–21 WAS
DET 73%WAS 27%
DETLions
  1. QBJared Goff248 pass yd · 2.7 TD · 0.3 INT6%21.1
  2. RBJahmyr Gibbs15 car · 71 yd   2-22 rec59%15.6
  3. WRAmon-Ra St. Brown8-91 on 10 tgt33%15.3
  4. TESam LaPorta4-62 on 5 tgt52%12.7
  5. RBDavid Montgomery13 car · 44 yd   2-17 rec52%11.3
WASCommanders
  1. QBJayden Daniels192 pass yd · 1.5 TD · 0.7 INT · 43 rush yd36%20.1
  2. WRDeebo Samuel Sr.5-48 on 8 tgt26%9.2
  3. RBJacory Croskey-Merritt11 car · 47 yd   1-7 rec31%8.1
  4. WRTerry McLaurin3-38 on 4 tgt31%7.3
  5. TEZach Ertz4-32 on 5 tgt31%7.2
BUF@MIABUF −7.9O/U 49.0BUF 28–21 MIA
BUF 72%MIA 28%
BUFBills
  1. QBJosh Allen205 pass yd · 2.0 TD · 0.5 INT · 29 rush yd60%24.0
  2. RBJames Cook22 car · 143 yd   0-3 rec53%19.4
  3. TEDalton Kincaid4-63 on 5 tgt32%10.7
  4. WRKhalil Shakir5-47 on 7 tgt29%9.4
  5. WRKeon Coleman3-24 on 4 tgt25%5.6
MIADolphins
  1. QBTua Tagovailoa219 pass yd · 1.3 TD · 1.1 INT4%13.4
  2. RBDe'Von Achane12 car · 72 yd   5-26 rec49%16.3
  3. WRJaylen Waddle5-83 on 8 tgt32%13.1
  4. TEGreg Dulcich4-44 on 5 tgt22%8.1
  5. WRMalik Washington4-36 on 6 tgt21%7.4
ATL@INDIND −12.1O/U 48.3ATL 18–30 IND
ATL 18%IND 82%
ATLFalcons
  1. QBMichael Penix Jr.266 pass yd · 1.4 TD · 0.2 INT5%17.1
  2. WRDrake London9-108 on 15 tgt64%21.4
  3. RBBijan Robinson12 car · 51 yd   6-42 rec35%14.7
  4. TEKyle Pitts6-59 on 8 tgt14%9.9
  5. WRDarnell Mooney2-30 on 4 tgt9%4.8
INDColts
  1. QBDaniel Jones214 pass yd · 2.8 TD · 0.9 INT · 10 rush yd30%22.0
  2. RBJonathan Taylor18 car · 103 yd   2-15 rec92%28.4
  3. WRMichael Pittman5-57 on 7 tgt48%12.1
  4. WRJosh Downs4-44 on 6 tgt52%10.9
  5. WRAlec Pierce4-67 on 7 tgt14%9.5
PIT@LACLAC −1.6O/U 48.1PIT 23–25 LAC
PIT 45%LAC 55%
🏟 dome
PITSteelers
  1. QBAaron Rodgers210 pass yd · 1.8 TD · 0.7 INT4%15.5
  2. RBJaylen Warren14 car · 74 yd   2-15 rec42%13.4
  3. WRDK Metcalf3-45 on 6 tgt36%8.9
  4. TEPat Freiermuth3-32 on 4 tgt41%7.8
  5. TEDarnell Washington4-36 on 5 tgt30%7.5
LACChargers
  1. QBJustin Herbert269 pass yd · 2.0 TD · 1.1 INT · 36 rush yd22%22.8
  2. WRLadd McConkey6-72 on 9 tgt46%14.1
  3. RBOmarion Hampton12 car · 50 yd   5-28 rec35%12.9
  4. TEOronde Gadsden II4-73 on 6 tgt35%12.1
  5. RBKimani Vidal14 car · 62 yd   2-10 rec36%10.8
BAL@MINBAL −0.8O/U 47.5BAL 24–23 MIN
BAL 52%MIN 48%
🏟 dome
BALRavens
  1. QBLamar Jackson194 pass yd · 3.0 TD · 0.2 INT · 20 rush yd17%22.7
  2. RBDerrick Henry20 car · 81 yd   1-5 rec56%13.9
  3. WRZay Flowers5-70 on 7 tgt13%10.6
  4. TEMark Andrews3-27 on 4 tgt35%7.2
  5. WRRashod Bateman2-25 on 3 tgt19%4.5
MINVikings
  1. QBCarson Wentz235 pass yd · 0.9 TD · 0.8 INT · 11 rush yd8%13.9
  2. WRJustin Jefferson6-78 on 10 tgt28%13.0
  3. WRJordan Addison5-55 on 7 tgt37%10.8
  4. RBJordan Mason10 car · 42 yd   1-7 rec39%8.4
  5. TET.J. Hockenson4-40 on 5 tgt26%8.1
PHI@GBGB −0.8O/U 47.5PHI 23–24 GB
PHI 48%GB 52%
PHIEagles
  1. QBJalen Hurts217 pass yd · 2.0 TD · 0.3 INT · 12 rush yd21%19.0
  2. WRDeVonta Smith7-91 on 9 tgt27%14.4
  3. WRA.J. Brown5-69 on 8 tgt44%13.0
  4. RBSaquon Barkley12 car · 60 yd   2-16 rec45%12.4
  5. TEDallas Goedert5-37 on 6 tgt56%11.1
GBPackers
  1. QBJordan Love246 pass yd · 1.1 TD · 0.5 INT · 13 rush yd8%15.6
  2. RBJosh Jacobs15 car · 64 yd   3-24 rec76%18.8
  3. TETucker Kraft4-46 on 6 tgt56%11.3
  4. WRRomeo Doubs5-61 on 8 tgt13%9.3
  5. WRChristian Watson2-43 on 4 tgt13%6.3
ARI@SEASEA −7.9O/U 47.3ARI 20–28 SEA
ARI 28%SEA 72%
ARICardinals
  1. QBKyler Murray220 pass yd · 0.6 TD · 0.4 INT · 19 rush yd27%14.4
  2. TETrey McBride8-70 on 11 tgt58%16.2
  3. WRMarvin Harrison Jr.4-57 on 6 tgt22%9.1
  4. RBMichael Carter10 car · 27 yd   3-26 rec29%9.0
  5. RBBam Knight8 car · 25 yd   2-14 rec32%7.2
SEASeahawks
  1. QBSam Darnold228 pass yd · 2.2 TD · 0.5 INT7%18.4
  2. WRJaxon Smith-Njigba7-104 on 10 tgt55%18.8
  3. RBZach Charbonnet12 car · 41 yd   1-8 rec59%10.8
  4. RBKenneth Walker III13 car · 62 yd   1-5 rec17%8.1
  5. TEAJ Barner3-32 on 4 tgt39%7.9
NE@TBNE −0.4O/U 46.4NE 23–23 TB
NE 51%TB 49%
NEPatriots
  1. QBDrake Maye251 pass yd · 1.6 TD · 0.5 INT · 33 rush yd10%19.7
  2. RBRhamondre Stevenson13 car · 39 yd   1-11 rec52%10.1
  3. WRStefon Diggs4-50 on 6 tgt32%9.5
  4. WRKayshon Boutte2-35 on 3 tgt40%7.7
  5. WRDeMario Douglas2-35 on 3 tgt27%6.6
TBBuccaneers
  1. QBBaker Mayfield262 pass yd · 1.4 TD · 0.4 INT6%17.1
  2. RBRachaad White13 car · 39 yd   3-21 rec52%12.1
  3. WREmeka Egbuka4-74 on 8 tgt26%11.4
  4. WRTez Johnson4-52 on 6 tgt34%9.5
  5. TECade Otton5-60 on 6 tgt15%9.4
LA@SFLA −5.4O/U 42.9LA 24–19 SF
LA 66%SF 34%
LARams
  1. QBMatthew Stafford232 pass yd · 3.0 TD · 0.1 INT8%22.5
  2. RBKyren Williams17 car · 72 yd   3-21 rec59%16.3
  3. WRDavante Adams5-58 on 8 tgt64%14.4
  4. WRPuka Nacua6-64 on 7 tgt44%12.9
  5. TETyler Higbee3-22 on 4 tgt39%6.6
SF49ers
  1. QBMac Jones244 pass yd · 0.9 TD · 0.7 INT · 14 rush yd6%14.4
  2. RBChristian McCaffrey18 car · 61 yd   6-49 rec60%19.4
  3. WRKendrick Bourne4-65 on 6 tgt8%9.1
  4. TEJake Tonges4-33 on 7 tgt39%8.5
  5. WRJauan Jennings3-36 on 6 tgt20%6.7
LV@DENDEN −11.7O/U 42.1LV 15–27 DEN
LV 19%DEN 81%
LVRaiders
  1. QBGeno Smith199 pass yd · 0.8 TD · 0.8 INT6%11.7
  2. TEBrock Bowers11-125 on 14 tgt76%26.8
  3. RBAshton Jeanty12 car · 40 yd   3-35 rec28%11.1
  4. TEAlbert Okwuegbunam4-48 on 7 tgt20%8.4
  5. TEMichael Mayer3-38 on 6 tgt23%7.1
DENBroncos
  1. QBBo Nix200 pass yd · 1.7 TD · 0.3 INT · 21 rush yd29%18.8
  2. RBJ.K. Dobbins18 car · 77 yd   1-4 rec32%10.9
  3. WRTroy Franklin4-40 on 7 tgt45%9.7
  4. WRCourtland Sutton4-53 on 6 tgt23%8.9
  5. RBRJ Harvey4 car · 16 yd   2-13 rec52%8.5
JAX@HOUHOU −7.1O/U 41.2JAX 17–24 HOU
JAX 30%HOU 70%
JAXJaguars
  1. QBTrevor Lawrence235 pass yd · 0.8 TD · 0.7 INT · 26 rush yd42%17.6
  2. WRBrian Thomas Jr.4-58 on 8 tgt21%9.3
  3. RBTravis Etienne12 car · 42 yd   3-21 rec13%8.7
  4. WRParker Washington4-46 on 7 tgt21%8.2
  5. WRDyami Brown3-30 on 5 tgt9%5.0
HOUTexans
  1. QBC.J. Stroud196 pass yd · 2.0 TD · 0.6 INT · 18 rush yd8%17.6
  2. TEDalton Schultz5-60 on 6 tgt15%9.5
  3. WRNico Collins4-47 on 8 tgt32%9.4
  4. RBWoody Marks10 car · 33 yd   2-19 rec26%8.0
  5. RBNick Chubb12 car · 40 yd   1-7 rec31%7.5
CLE@NYJNYJ −1.7O/U 40.8CLE 20–21 NYJ
CLE 45%NYJ 55%
CLEBrowns
  1. QBDillon Gabriel187 pass yd · 1.2 TD · 0.6 INT5%12.8
  2. RBQuinshon Judkins17 car · 64 yd   1-7 rec47%11.4
  3. TEHarold Fannin Jr.5-40 on 7 tgt35%9.2
  4. TEDavid Njoku5-38 on 7 tgt40%9.1
  5. WRJerry Jeudy3-32 on 6 tgt10%5.3
NYJJets
  1. QBJustin Fields160 pass yd · 1.0 TD · 0.1 INT · 29 rush yd10%13.7
  2. RBBreece Hall17 car · 71 yd   2-13 rec42%12.6
  3. WRGarrett Wilson5-61 on 9 tgt36%11.4
  4. TEMason Taylor4-37 on 6 tgt26%7.6
  5. WRJosh Reynolds3-38 on 5 tgt11%6.2
NO@CARCAR −5.7O/U 39.0NO 17–22 CAR
NO 34%CAR 66%
NOSaints
  1. QBSpencer Rattler212 pass yd · 0.6 TD · 1.2 INT · 16 rush yd6%11.6
  2. WRChris Olave6-76 on 9 tgt28%12.5
  3. WRRashid Shaheed5-67 on 9 tgt18%10.5
  4. TEJuwan Johnson4-49 on 5 tgt18%8.0
  5. RBAlvin Kamara8 car · 29 yd   3-18 rec10%6.8
CARPanthers
  1. QBBryce Young162 pass yd · 1.6 TD · 0.5 INT7%13.6
  2. RBRico Dowdle22 car · 128 yd   2-18 rec55%20.5
  3. WRTetairoa McMillan4-55 on 6 tgt30%9.8
  4. RBChuba Hubbard11 car · 36 yd   1-9 rec33%7.4
  5. WRXavier Legette3-34 on 4 tgt26%6.7