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NFL Week 17 2025 – Model Preview

Read this first. These are model projections, not betting advice or predictions. It’s the season opener, so the model is seeded from 2025 form (via Efficiency+ (HFA, recency, regression), 2025 in-season (through wk16)) — the least reliable week of the year: rookies have no data, roles are unsettled, and prior-season spreads run hotter than the market will. No market lines are posted yet, so there are no edges here to bet — just the model’s numbers. For entertainment only. 18+/21+. Problem gambling? BeGambleAware.org (UK) · 1-800-GAMBLER (US).

Model’s Sharpest Reads

projections, no market to beat

Most Confident

Highest projected win probability.

  1. NE over NYJ 83% win
  2. LA over ATL 82% win
  3. SEA over CAR 75% win
  4. JAX over IND 70% win

Projected Shootouts

Highest projected totals.

  1. DAL@WAS57.6
  2. ARI@CIN56.5
  3. LA@ATL54.5

Projected Slugfests

Lowest projected totals.

  1. NO@TEN38.1
  2. HOU@LAC40.2
  3. DEN@KC41.2

TD Magnets

highest anytime-touchdown probability
  1. Jahmyr GibbsRBDET v MIN75%
  2. Christian McCaffreyRBSF v CHI75%
  3. Blake CorumRBLA v ATL74%
  4. Travis EtienneRBJAX v IND74%
  5. Kyren WilliamsRBLA v ATL71%
  6. Chase BrownRBCIN v ARI70%
  7. James CookRBBUF v PHI70%
  8. Jauan JenningsWRSF v CHI64%

The Slate

tap any game to expand the full report
DAL@WASDAL −2.0O/U 57.6DAL 30–28 WAS
DAL 56%WAS 44%
DALCowboys
  1. QBDak Prescott349 pass yd · 2.2 TD · 0.6 INT19%24.6
  2. WRGeorge Pickens6-91 on 9 tgt42%15.5
  3. WRCeeDee Lamb6-96 on 9 tgt29%14.7
  4. RBJavonte Williams16 car · 75 yd   2-14 rec53%14.4
  5. WRRyan Flournoy4-44 on 5 tgt36%8.8
WASCommanders
  1. QBMarcus Mariota184 pass yd · 1.2 TD · 0.4 INT · 26 rush yd12%15.3
  2. WRTerry McLaurin5-75 on 7 tgt43%13.2
  3. TEZach Ertz6-59 on 8 tgt24%10.5
  4. RBChris Rodriguez Jr.12 car · 53 yd   0-4 rec51%10.3
  5. WRDeebo Samuel Sr.4-52 on 6 tgt15%8.4
ARI@CINCIN −5.4O/U 56.5ARI 26–31 CIN
ARI 34%CIN 66%
ARICardinals
  1. QBJacoby Brissett332 pass yd · 2.6 TD · 1.1 INT · 13 rush yd7%24.5
  2. WRMichael Wilson7-91 on 11 tgt59%17.7
  3. TETrey McBride8-95 on 10 tgt51%17.6
  4. WRGreg Dortch4-44 on 6 tgt38%9.6
  5. RBBam Knight7 car · 29 yd   3-25 rec38%9.6
CINBengals
  1. QBJoe Burrow255 pass yd · 3.3 TD · 0.8 INT7%23.7
  2. RBChase Brown15 car · 77 yd   4-29 rec70%19.9
  3. WRJa'Marr Chase7-93 on 12 tgt18%14.3
  4. WRTee Higgins4-53 on 6 tgt61%13.0
  5. RBSamaje Perine11 car · 45 yd   1-10 rec38%8.9
LA@ATLLA −12.2O/U 54.5LA 33–21 ATL
LA 82%ATL 18%
LARams
  1. QBMatthew Stafford280 pass yd · 3.4 TD · 0.7 INT4%24.8
  2. WRPuka Nacua7-128 on 10 tgt62%22.5
  3. RBKyren Williams18 car · 83 yd   1-8 rec71%17.2
  4. RBBlake Corum12 car · 75 yd   0-3 rec74%16.0
  5. WRDavante Adams4-52 on 6 tgt62%12.9
ATLFalcons
  1. QBKirk Cousins254 pass yd · 1.6 TD · 1.1 INT10%16.3
  2. RBBijan Robinson16 car · 70 yd   5-54 rec43%18.3
  3. TEKyle Pitts7-70 on 10 tgt53%15.0
  4. WRDrake London5-55 on 9 tgt24%9.4
  5. WRDavid Sills2-29 on 5 tgt29%6.2
JAX@INDJAX −7.2O/U 54.0JAX 31–23 IND
JAX 70%IND 30%
JAXJaguars
  1. QBTrevor Lawrence241 pass yd · 3.0 TD · 0.6 INT · 25 rush yd36%26.2
  2. RBTravis Etienne17 car · 56 yd   2-17 rec74%16.3
  3. WRJakobi Meyers4-56 on 7 tgt51%12.4
  4. WRParker Washington4-59 on 5 tgt41%10.8
  5. TEBrenton Strange3-44 on 5 tgt36%8.7
INDColts
  1. QBPhilip Rivers202 pass yd · 1.5 TD · 1.2 INT2%13.2
  2. RBJonathan Taylor18 car · 58 yd   2-20 rec38%11.8
  3. WRAlec Pierce3-42 on 4 tgt38%8.5
  4. WRMichael Pittman4-38 on 7 tgt24%7.6
  5. TETyler Warren4-33 on 7 tgt26%7.1
CHI@SFSF −4.8O/U 50.2CHI 23–28 SF
CHI 36%SF 64%
CHIBears
  1. QBCaleb Williams226 pass yd · 2.3 TD · 0.4 INT · 18 rush yd8%20.1
  2. WRDJ Moore4-51 on 6 tgt55%11.9
  3. RBD'Andre Swift13 car · 64 yd   2-11 rec44%11.9
  4. RBKyle Monangai13 car · 58 yd   1-9 rec35%10.0
  5. WRLuther Burden III5-58 on 6 tgt13%9.3
SF49ers
  1. QBBrock Purdy235 pass yd · 3.2 TD · 1.1 INT · 19 rush yd24%24.5
  2. RBChristian McCaffrey23 car · 100 yd   4-24 rec75%22.8
  3. TEGeorge Kittle6-72 on 8 tgt43%13.8
  4. WRJauan Jennings4-51 on 6 tgt64%13.2
  5. WRRicky Pearsall3-40 on 4 tgt14%6.6
NE@NYJNE −12.8O/U 49.6NE 31–18 NYJ
NE 83%NYJ 17%
NEPatriots
  1. QBDrake Maye239 pass yd · 1.9 TD · 0.7 INT · 26 rush yd44%22.7
  2. RBTreVeyon Henderson14 car · 73 yd   2-16 rec56%14.9
  3. TEHunter Henry4-47 on 6 tgt43%10.1
  4. RBRhamondre Stevenson9 car · 40 yd   2-20 rec38%9.8
  5. WRStefon Diggs4-44 on 5 tgt13%7.0
NYJJets
  1. QBBrady Cook212 pass yd · 0.6 TD · 1.6 INT · 12 rush yd6%11.1
  2. WRAdonai Mitchell5-62 on 9 tgt31%10.9
  3. RBBreece Hall13 car · 39 yd   2-17 rec20%8.0
  4. WRJohn Metchie III4-40 on 7 tgt20%7.7
  5. TEMason Taylor4-40 on 6 tgt13%6.9
DET@MINDET −1.2O/U 49.0DET 25–24 MIN
DET 53%MIN 47%
🏟 dome
DETLions
  1. QBJared Goff292 pass yd · 1.9 TD · 0.2 INT3%19.6
  2. RBJahmyr Gibbs14 car · 66 yd   7-37 rec75%22.1
  3. WRAmon-Ra St. Brown6-92 on 10 tgt47%16.1
  4. WRJameson Williams5-85 on 8 tgt37%13.9
  5. RBDavid Montgomery6 car · 28 yd   1-7 rec41%7.2
MINVikings
  1. QBJ.J. McCarthy158 pass yd · 1.5 TD · 0.9 INT · 16 rush yd29%15.0
  2. RBAaron Jones12 car · 50 yd   2-15 rec15%8.6
  3. WRJustin Jefferson3-42 on 6 tgt10%6.5
  4. TET.J. Hockenson3-30 on 4 tgt21%5.9
  5. WRJordan Addison3-39 on 5 tgt9%5.8
PHI@BUFBUF −1.5O/U 46.6PHI 23–24 BUF
PHI 46%BUF 54%
PHIEagles
  1. QBJalen Hurts213 pass yd · 1.4 TD · 1.2 INT · 28 rush yd30%17.9
  2. WRA.J. Brown7-90 on 10 tgt52%16.8
  3. RBSaquon Barkley17 car · 94 yd   2-14 rec47%15.7
  4. WRDeVonta Smith5-54 on 8 tgt22%9.2
  5. TEDallas Goedert4-42 on 5 tgt39%9.1
BUFBills
  1. QBJosh Allen167 pass yd · 1.1 TD · 0.6 INT · 39 rush yd34%17.1
  2. RBJames Cook22 car · 110 yd   2-20 rec70%21.2
  3. WRKhalil Shakir3-40 on 5 tgt21%7.1
  4. TEDawson Knox3-27 on 4 tgt30%6.2
  5. RBTy Johnson3 car · 12 yd   2-21 rec18%5.5
TB@MIAMIA −0.4O/U 46.6TB 23–24 MIA
TB 49%MIA 51%
TBBuccaneers
  1. QBBaker Mayfield173 pass yd · 1.5 TD · 0.8 INT · 24 rush yd8%15.1
  2. WRMike Evans6-82 on 10 tgt41%14.6
  3. RBBucky Irving17 car · 68 yd   2-15 rec37%11.9
  4. WRChris Godwin Jr.4-40 on 6 tgt21%7.4
  5. WREmeka Egbuka4-43 on 7 tgt10%6.7
MIADolphins
  1. QBQuinn Ewers253 pass yd · 0.8 TD · 1.4 INT8%13.2
  2. RBDe'Von Achane14 car · 83 yd   2-22 rec54%16.3
  3. TEDarren Waller4-39 on 5 tgt35%8.4
  4. RBJaylen Wright9 car · 40 yd   1-10 rec39%8.4
  5. WRJaylen Waddle4-46 on 6 tgt26%8.4
SEA@CARSEA −9.0O/U 44.1SEA 27–18 CAR
SEA 75%CAR 25%
SEASeahawks
  1. QBSam Darnold210 pass yd · 1.2 TD · 0.7 INT7%13.9
  2. WRJaxon Smith-Njigba6-85 on 8 tgt61%17.2
  3. RBKenneth Walker III12 car · 65 yd   2-16 rec32%11.5
  4. RBZach Charbonnet10 car · 48 yd   1-7 rec51%10.4
  5. TEAJ Barner3-36 on 4 tgt23%7.0
CARPanthers
  1. QBBryce Young180 pass yd · 1.1 TD · 0.7 INT · 25 rush yd7%13.9
  2. WRTetairoa McMillan3-40 on 6 tgt38%8.4
  3. RBRico Dowdle11 car · 32 yd   3-18 rec22%7.9
  4. WRJalen Coker3-42 on 5 tgt28%7.7
  5. RBChuba Hubbard7 car · 26 yd   2-14 rec17%6.1
NYG@LVNYG −2.5O/U 42.8NYG 23–20 LV
NYG 57%LV 43%
🏟 dome
NYGGiants
  1. QBJaxson Dart146 pass yd · 1.1 TD · 0.5 INT · 26 rush yd11%12.9
  2. WRWan'Dale Robinson6-68 on 9 tgt39%13.2
  3. RBTyrone Tracy Jr.16 car · 58 yd   2-17 rec38%11.6
  4. RBDevin Singletary11 car · 42 yd   1-7 rec28%7.4
  5. TETheo Johnson3-39 on 5 tgt11%6.0
LVRaiders
  1. QBGeno Smith202 pass yd · 1.4 TD · 0.4 INT4%14.0
  2. RBAshton Jeanty14 car · 66 yd   4-31 rec41%15.1
  3. TEBrock Bowers5-43 on 6 tgt45%10.3
  4. WRTre Tucker3-32 on 5 tgt9%5.4
  5. WRJack Bech3-34 on 4 tgt8%5.3
PIT@CLEPIT −5.7O/U 42.2PIT 24–18 CLE
PIT 66%CLE 34%
PITSteelers
  1. QBAaron Rodgers200 pass yd · 1.2 TD · 0.1 INT11%13.7
  2. RBJaylen Warren14 car · 59 yd   2-13 rec61%13.8
  3. RBKenny Gainwell9 car · 48 yd   5-34 rec37%13.3
  4. WRDK Metcalf4-55 on 7 tgt25%9.5
  5. TEPat Freiermuth2-24 on 4 tgt21%5.1
CLEBrowns
  1. QBShedeur Sanders225 pass yd · 1.0 TD · 1.3 INT · 15 rush yd11%14.0
  2. TEHarold Fannin Jr.6-64 on 9 tgt41%12.8
  3. RBQuinshon Judkins13 car · 42 yd   3-20 rec30%9.6
  4. RBDylan Sampson4 car · 16 yd   2-27 rec20%6.9
  5. RBRaheim Sanders10 car · 42 yd   1-6 rec18%6.4
BAL@GBGB −1.7O/U 42.0BAL 20–22 GB
BAL 45%GB 55%
BALRavens
  1. QBLamar Jackson157 pass yd · 0.6 TD · 0.5 INT · 22 rush yd17%11.6
  2. RBDerrick Henry17 car · 76 yd   1-7 rec56%13.7
  3. WRZay Flowers5-67 on 7 tgt24%11.3
  4. TEIsaiah Likely3-24 on 4 tgt19%5.1
  5. RBKeaton Mitchell5 car · 28 yd   1-5 rec17%4.7
GBPackers
  1. QBJordan Love182 pass yd · 1.2 TD · 0.5 INT · 12 rush yd6%13.0
  2. RBJosh Jacobs16 car · 68 yd   2-12 rec46%12.6
  3. WRChristian Watson4-50 on 6 tgt39%9.8
  4. RBEmanuel Wilson10 car · 43 yd   0-3 rec32%7.1
  5. WRDontayvion Wicks2-31 on 4 tgt29%6.5
DEN@KCKC −0.1O/U 41.2DEN 21–21 KC
DEN 50%KC 50%
DENBroncos
  1. QBBo Nix302 pass yd · 1.2 TD · 0.5 INT · 15 rush yd18%19.0
  2. RBRJ Harvey14 car · 54 yd   3-29 rec64%16.0
  3. WRCourtland Sutton6-77 on 10 tgt46%14.6
  4. WRTroy Franklin4-40 on 4 tgt20%7.2
  5. WRPat Bryant4-43 on 6 tgt12%7.1
KCChiefs
  1. QBPatrick Mahomes221 pass yd · 0.8 TD · 0.9 INT · 26 rush yd18%15.0
  2. WRRashee Rice6-71 on 11 tgt38%13.3
  3. RBKareem Hunt13 car · 40 yd   1-10 rec34%7.9
  4. TETravis Kelce4-38 on 6 tgt21%7.0
  5. WRXavier Worthy3-40 on 5 tgt10%6.4
HOU@LACHOU −1.7O/U 40.2HOU 21–19 LAC
HOU 55%LAC 45%
🏟 dome
HOUTexans
  1. QBC.J. Stroud207 pass yd · 0.9 TD · 0.4 INT7%13.0
  2. RBJawhar Jordan15 car · 76 yd   3-16 rec23%12.1
  3. WRNico Collins4-65 on 7 tgt31%10.6
  4. RBWoody Marks17 car · 65 yd   1-6 rec20%9.0
  5. TEDalton Schultz5-41 on 6 tgt30%8.5
LACChargers
  1. QBJustin Herbert179 pass yd · 1.0 TD · 0.9 INT · 27 rush yd20%14.3
  2. RBOmarion Hampton14 car · 58 yd   1-10 rec35%10.0
  3. RBKimani Vidal14 car · 49 yd   1-11 rec25%8.2
  4. RBJaret Patterson11 car · 44 yd   0-0 rec39%7.4
  5. WRLadd McConkey3-30 on 5 tgt29%6.4
NO@TENNO −1.5O/U 38.1NO 20–18 TEN
NO 54%TEN 46%
NOSaints
  1. QBTyler Shough269 pass yd · 0.9 TD · 0.5 INT · 27 rush yd27%18.6
  2. WRChris Olave7-90 on 10 tgt47%16.3
  3. WRDevaughn Vele5-67 on 6 tgt22%10.5
  4. RBDevin Neal12 car · 44 yd   2-20 rec38%10.4
  5. TEJuwan Johnson5-47 on 6 tgt10%7.9
TENTitans
  1. QBCam Ward190 pass yd · 1.3 TD · 0.3 INT · 12 rush yd12%14.6
  2. RBTony Pollard16 car · 80 yd   1-10 rec39%12.6
  3. RBTyjae Spears6 car · 21 yd   4-28 rec19%8.1
  4. WRChimere Dike4-33 on 6 tgt34%7.8
  5. TEChig Okonkwo4-34 on 5 tgt18%6.4