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NFL Week 15 2025 – Model Preview

Read this first. These are model projections, not betting advice or predictions. It’s the season opener, so the model is seeded from 2025 form (via Efficiency+ (HFA, recency, regression), 2025 in-season (through wk14)) — the least reliable week of the year: rookies have no data, roles are unsettled, and prior-season spreads run hotter than the market will. No market lines are posted yet, so there are no edges here to bet — just the model’s numbers. For entertainment only. 18+/21+. Problem gambling? BeGambleAware.org (UK) · 1-800-GAMBLER (US).

Model’s Sharpest Reads

projections, no market to beat

Most Confident

Highest projected win probability.

  1. JAX over NYJ 83% win
  2. SF over TEN 82% win
  3. HOU over ARI 80% win
  4. SEA over IND 77% win

Projected Shootouts

Highest projected totals.

  1. DET@LA55.6
  2. BAL@CIN54.9
  3. BUF@NE50.9

Projected Slugfests

Lowest projected totals.

  1. CAR@NO37.3
  2. LV@PHI38.1
  3. GB@DEN40.0

TD Magnets

highest anytime-touchdown probability
  1. Christian McCaffreyRBSF v TEN79%
  2. Travis EtienneRBJAX v NYJ79%
  3. Jahmyr GibbsRBDET v LA77%
  4. Kyren WilliamsRBLA v DET76%
  5. TreVeyon HendersonRBNE v BUF73%
  6. Davante AdamsWRLA v DET70%
  7. Derrick HenryRBBAL v CIN65%
  8. Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWRSEA v IND65%

The Slate

tap any game to expand the full report
DET@LALA −8.8O/U 55.6DET 23–32 LA
DET 26%LA 74%
🏟 dome
DETLions
  1. QBJared Goff283 pass yd · 1.7 TD · 0.6 INT3%18.1
  2. RBJahmyr Gibbs13 car · 71 yd   6-53 rec77%24.3
  3. WRJameson Williams5-82 on 8 tgt46%14.6
  4. WRAmon-Ra St. Brown5-70 on 9 tgt37%12.3
  5. TESam LaPorta4-35 on 5 tgt22%7.1
LARams
  1. QBMatthew Stafford222 pass yd · 3.9 TD · 0.5 INT4%24.5
  2. RBKyren Williams14 car · 71 yd   1-6 rec76%16.9
  3. WRPuka Nacua5-85 on 8 tgt52%15.8
  4. WRDavante Adams4-46 on 6 tgt70%13.6
  5. RBBlake Corum11 car · 56 yd   0-2 rec57%11.0
BAL@CINBAL −2.3O/U 54.9BAL 29–26 CIN
BAL 57%CIN 43%
BALRavens
  1. QBLamar Jackson220 pass yd · 0.8 TD · 0.8 INT · 26 rush yd26%15.8
  2. RBDerrick Henry20 car · 98 yd   2-18 rec65%18.8
  3. WRZay Flowers4-65 on 7 tgt15%10.2
  4. TEMark Andrews3-32 on 5 tgt29%7.0
  5. TEIsaiah Likely3-38 on 4 tgt24%6.9
CINBengals
  1. QBJoe Burrow277 pass yd · 2.8 TD · 0.8 INT7%22.6
  2. RBChase Brown15 car · 72 yd   5-31 rec46%16.3
  3. WRTee Higgins5-62 on 8 tgt61%14.1
  4. WRJa'Marr Chase5-67 on 11 tgt19%10.8
  5. TEMike Gesicki4-45 on 6 tgt32%8.9
BUF@NENE −2.9O/U 50.9BUF 24–27 NE
BUF 42%NE 58%
BUFBills
  1. QBJosh Allen247 pass yd · 2.1 TD · 1.0 INT · 37 rush yd56%25.9
  2. RBJames Cook18 car · 71 yd   3-24 rec36%13.8
  3. WRKhalil Shakir4-41 on 6 tgt22%7.6
  4. WRKeon Coleman3-31 on 5 tgt38%7.4
  5. TEDalton Kincaid3-33 on 4 tgt30%7.0
NEPatriots
  1. QBDrake Maye250 pass yd · 1.7 TD · 0.6 INT · 17 rush yd12%18.5
  2. RBTreVeyon Henderson16 car · 97 yd   3-15 rec73%20.3
  3. TEHunter Henry4-55 on 6 tgt29%9.4
  4. WRStefon Diggs4-48 on 6 tgt28%8.9
  5. WRMack Hollins4-51 on 6 tgt13%7.8
IND@SEASEA −9.8O/U 50.9IND 21–30 SEA
IND 23%SEA 77%
INDColts
  1. QBRiley Leonard169 pass yd · 0.6 TD · 1.1 INT17%9.8
  2. RBJonathan Taylor19 car · 78 yd   2-18 rec55%15.5
  3. TETyler Warren5-57 on 7 tgt27%10.4
  4. WRAlec Pierce3-50 on 6 tgt34%9.2
  5. WRMichael Pittman4-36 on 7 tgt24%7.3
SEASeahawks
  1. QBSam Darnold187 pass yd · 1.2 TD · 1.1 INT7%12.2
  2. WRJaxon Smith-Njigba5-79 on 8 tgt65%17.2
  3. RBZach Charbonnet12 car · 50 yd   1-4 rec57%10.9
  4. RBKenneth Walker III15 car · 59 yd   2-14 rec36%10.9
  5. TEAJ Barner3-31 on 4 tgt16%6.2
MIN@DALDAL −1.9O/U 50.3MIN 24–26 DAL
MIN 44%DAL 56%
MINVikings
  1. QBMax Brosmer195 pass yd · 0.9 TD · 1.9 INT5%10.2
  2. RBAaron Jones10 car · 50 yd   3-23 rec27%10.7
  3. WRJordan Addison4-47 on 7 tgt24%8.1
  4. WRJustin Jefferson4-48 on 8 tgt11%7.6
  5. RBJordan Mason7 car · 40 yd   0-3 rec31%6.6
DALCowboys
  1. QBDak Prescott309 pass yd · 2.1 TD · 0.8 INT · 10 rush yd22%22.5
  2. WRGeorge Pickens7-103 on 10 tgt44%17.2
  3. WRCeeDee Lamb5-91 on 9 tgt42%15.0
  4. RBJavonte Williams20 car · 73 yd   2-10 rec44%12.7
  5. TEJake Ferguson4-40 on 6 tgt28%8.3
WAS@NYGNYG −4.3O/U 50.2WAS 23–27 NYG
WAS 37%NYG 63%
WASCommanders
  1. QBMarcus Mariota198 pass yd · 1.5 TD · 0.6 INT · 29 rush yd10%16.7
  2. WRTerry McLaurin6-81 on 10 tgt41%14.2
  3. WRDeebo Samuel Sr.5-55 on 7 tgt38%11.2
  4. RBChris Rodriguez Jr.10 car · 52 yd   0-3 rec36%8.4
  5. TEZach Ertz5-48 on 7 tgt14%8.2
NYGGiants
  1. QBJameis Winston290 pass yd · 1.6 TD · 0.7 INT · 14 rush yd28%20.7
  2. WRWan'Dale Robinson7-86 on 10 tgt32%14.4
  3. RBDevin Singletary13 car · 53 yd   1-16 rec59%12.9
  4. RBTyrone Tracy Jr.17 car · 73 yd   2-25 rec20%12.1
  5. TETheo Johnson4-59 on 6 tgt14%8.9
ATL@TBTB −4.1O/U 46.9ATL 21–25 TB
ATL 38%TB 62%
ATLFalcons
  1. QBKirk Cousins188 pass yd · 0.9 TD · 0.9 INT3%10.6
  2. RBBijan Robinson18 car · 87 yd   3-31 rec45%17.0
  3. WRDrake London6-92 on 9 tgt37%15.0
  4. RBTyler Allgeier8 car · 32 yd   1-13 rec46%8.8
  5. TEKyle Pitts4-46 on 6 tgt11%7.5
TBBuccaneers
  1. QBBaker Mayfield163 pass yd · 1.8 TD · 0.9 INT · 22 rush yd20%16.2
  2. RBBucky Irving17 car · 68 yd   2-15 rec56%14.0
  3. RBSean Tucker10 car · 49 yd   1-6 rec51%10.2
  4. WREmeka Egbuka4-54 on 9 tgt25%9.3
  5. RBRachaad White8 car · 40 yd   2-12 rec14%7.2
NYJ@JAXJAX −12.8O/U 46.8NYJ 17–30 JAX
NYJ 17%JAX 83%
NYJJets
  1. QBBrady Cook196 pass yd · 0.6 TD · 1.9 INT3%8.9
  2. RBBreece Hall14 car · 45 yd   2-19 rec24%8.9
  3. WRAdonai Mitchell4-47 on 8 tgt22%8.1
  4. WRJohn Metchie III4-35 on 6 tgt26%7.2
  5. TEMason Taylor3-30 on 5 tgt8%5.2
JAXJaguars
  1. QBTrevor Lawrence178 pass yd · 2.2 TD · 0.8 INT · 21 rush yd24%19.0
  2. RBTravis Etienne19 car · 76 yd   1-13 rec79%18.8
  3. WRJakobi Meyers4-49 on 6 tgt47%11.0
  4. WRParker Washington3-34 on 4 tgt38%7.8
  5. TEBrenton Strange3-37 on 4 tgt31%7.5
CLE@CHICHI −5.1O/U 45.9CLE 20–26 CHI
CLE 35%CHI 65%
CLEBrowns
  1. QBShedeur Sanders220 pass yd · 1.4 TD · 0.9 INT · 10 rush yd13%15.4
  2. RBQuinshon Judkins17 car · 66 yd   2-14 rec33%11.3
  3. TEHarold Fannin Jr.5-57 on 7 tgt32%10.7
  4. WRJerry Jeudy4-57 on 6 tgt30%9.7
  5. RBDylan Sampson3 car · 14 yd   2-18 rec16%5.1
CHIBears
  1. QBCaleb Williams184 pass yd · 1.7 TD · 0.5 INT · 25 rush yd22%17.8
  2. RBKyle Monangai14 car · 56 yd   1-4 rec60%11.8
  3. RBD'Andre Swift16 car · 70 yd   2-14 rec31%11.7
  4. WRRome Odunze4-48 on 7 tgt27%8.4
  5. TEColston Loveland3-35 on 5 tgt32%7.4
TEN@SFSF −12.1O/U 44.5TEN 16–28 SF
TEN 18%SF 82%
TENTitans
  1. QBCam Ward216 pass yd · 1.0 TD · 0.3 INT · 16 rush yd13%14.8
  2. RBTony Pollard12 car · 53 yd   2-11 rec29%9.7
  3. WRChimere Dike4-36 on 6 tgt28%7.6
  4. RBTyjae Spears4 car · 11 yd   5-27 rec10%6.8
  5. TEGunnar Helm4-32 on 6 tgt9%6.0
SF49ers
  1. QBBrock Purdy192 pass yd · 2.1 TD · 0.6 INT24%17.9
  2. RBChristian McCaffrey20 car · 78 yd   5-42 rec79%23.9
  3. TEGeorge Kittle6-60 on 7 tgt52%13.2
  4. WRJauan Jennings5-57 on 6 tgt50%12.1
  5. RBBrian Robinson9 car · 39 yd   1-5 rec32%7.1
ARI@HOUHOU −11.6O/U 44.1ARI 16–28 HOU
ARI 20%HOU 80%
ARICardinals
  1. QBJacoby Brissett322 pass yd · 1.2 TD · 1.2 INT · 16 rush yd5%18.5
  2. WRMichael Wilson8-101 on 14 tgt30%16.4
  3. TETrey McBride8-84 on 11 tgt38%15.5
  4. WRMarvin Harrison Jr.5-61 on 10 tgt32%10.9
  5. RBBam Knight7 car · 23 yd   3-23 rec30%8.5
HOUTexans
  1. QBDavis Mills221 pass yd · 1.8 TD · 0.4 INT · 11 rush yd20%18.3
  2. WRNico Collins5-85 on 8 tgt27%13.0
  3. RBWoody Marks21 car · 83 yd   1-8 rec40%12.8
  4. WRJayden Higgins4-44 on 6 tgt34%8.8
  5. TEDalton Schultz4-41 on 6 tgt25%8.1
MIA@PITPIT −0.1O/U 43.5MIA 22–22 PIT
MIA 50%PIT 50%
MIADolphins
  1. QBTua Tagovailoa154 pass yd · 0.7 TD · 0.7 INT5%9.2
  2. RBDe'Von Achane18 car · 120 yd   3-20 rec61%21.0
  3. WRJaylen Waddle4-55 on 7 tgt35%10.3
  4. RBJaylen Wright8 car · 36 yd   0-3 rec24%5.8
  5. WRMalik Washington3-26 on 4 tgt20%5.4
PITSteelers
  1. QBAaron Rodgers177 pass yd · 0.9 TD · 0.4 INT8%11.2
  2. RBKenny Gainwell6 car · 30 yd   5-39 rec39%12.3
  3. RBJaylen Warren12 car · 55 yd   2-17 rec40%11.2
  4. WRDK Metcalf5-56 on 8 tgt13%9.0
  5. TEDarnell Washington2-27 on 3 tgt7%4.2
LAC@KCKC −3.2O/U 42.8LAC 20–23 KC
LAC 41%KC 59%
LACChargers
  1. QBJustin Herbert162 pass yd · 0.8 TD · 0.6 INT · 26 rush yd9%12.0
  2. RBKimani Vidal16 car · 64 yd   1-14 rec37%11.3
  3. RBOmarion Hampton12 car · 51 yd   2-12 rec31%9.4
  4. WRLadd McConkey3-42 on 5 tgt30%8.1
  5. WRKeenan Allen3-34 on 5 tgt9%5.6
KCChiefs
  1. QBPatrick Mahomes230 pass yd · 1.1 TD · 1.4 INT · 23 rush yd9%14.9
  2. RBKareem Hunt18 car · 75 yd   1-10 rec55%13.9
  3. WRRashee Rice6-65 on 10 tgt40%12.6
  4. TETravis Kelce5-50 on 7 tgt38%10.4
  5. WRXavier Worthy3-41 on 6 tgt12%6.7
GB@DENDEN −0.5O/U 40.0GB 20–20 DEN
GB 48%DEN 52%
GBPackers
  1. QBJordan Love174 pass yd · 1.2 TD · 0.2 INT · 12 rush yd6%13.1
  2. RBJosh Jacobs16 car · 61 yd   2-14 rec38%11.3
  3. WRChristian Watson4-48 on 6 tgt49%10.7
  4. WRDontayvion Wicks3-36 on 5 tgt30%7.4
  5. RBEmanuel Wilson9 car · 32 yd   1-5 rec37%6.7
DENBroncos
  1. QBBo Nix214 pass yd · 0.5 TD · 0.6 INT · 12 rush yd16%12.4
  2. RBRJ Harvey11 car · 37 yd   4-17 rec47%11.0
  3. RBJ.K. Dobbins18 car · 71 yd   1-5 rec27%9.8
  4. WRCourtland Sutton5-51 on 7 tgt22%8.9
  5. WRTroy Franklin4-41 on 6 tgt21%7.4
LV@PHIPHI −9.6O/U 38.1LV 14–24 PHI
LV 24%PHI 76%
LVRaiders
  1. QBGeno Smith203 pass yd · 0.7 TD · 0.6 INT4%11.3
  2. RBAshton Jeanty12 car · 35 yd   5-39 rec27%11.8
  3. TEBrock Bowers4-45 on 7 tgt34%9.3
  4. WRTre Tucker3-35 on 6 tgt16%6.2
  5. WRTyler Lockett3-35 on 4 tgt6%5.3
PHIEagles
  1. QBJalen Hurts195 pass yd · 0.9 TD · 0.8 INT · 26 rush yd41%16.2
  2. WRA.J. Brown6-74 on 9 tgt42%13.9
  3. RBSaquon Barkley21 car · 76 yd   2-17 rec32%12.7
  4. WRDeVonta Smith4-49 on 7 tgt22%8.5
  5. TEDallas Goedert3-35 on 5 tgt10%5.7
CAR@NOCAR −0.7O/U 37.3CAR 19–18 NO
CAR 52%NO 48%
🏟 dome
CARPanthers
  1. QBBryce Young232 pass yd · 1.7 TD · 0.7 INT · 12 rush yd6%16.9
  2. WRTetairoa McMillan4-63 on 7 tgt48%12.4
  3. RBRico Dowdle15 car · 52 yd   3-27 rec27%11.5
  4. RBChuba Hubbard7 car · 31 yd   2-16 rec19%7.0
  5. WRJalen Coker3-40 on 4 tgt18%6.8
NOSaints
  1. QBTyler Shough237 pass yd · 0.8 TD · 0.9 INT · 24 rush yd29%16.1
  2. WRChris Olave5-67 on 8 tgt32%11.6
  3. TEJuwan Johnson5-60 on 6 tgt21%9.8
  4. RBDevin Neal11 car · 46 yd   3-18 rec24%9.5
  5. RBAlvin Kamara12 car · 56 yd   2-13 rec18%9.1