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NFL Week 13 2025 – Model Preview

Read this first. These are model projections, not betting advice or predictions. It’s the season opener, so the model is seeded from 2025 form (via Efficiency+ (HFA, recency, regression), 2025 in-season (through wk12)) — the least reliable week of the year: rookies have no data, roles are unsettled, and prior-season spreads run hotter than the market will. No market lines are posted yet, so there are no edges here to bet — just the model’s numbers. For entertainment only. 18+/21+. Problem gambling? BeGambleAware.org (UK) · 1-800-GAMBLER (US).

Model’s Sharpest Reads

projections, no market to beat

Most Confident

Highest projected win probability.

  1. BAL over CIN 81% win
  2. LA over CAR 81% win
  3. SEA over MIN 80% win
  4. NE over NYG 78% win

Projected Shootouts

Highest projected totals.

  1. CIN@BAL54.6
  2. ARI@TB52.6
  3. BUF@PIT52.5

Projected Slugfests

Lowest projected totals.

  1. NO@MIA37.8
  2. LV@LAC40.4
  3. LA@CAR41.5

TD Magnets

highest anytime-touchdown probability
  1. Derrick HenryRBBAL v CIN79%
  2. Jonathan TaylorRBIND v HOU76%
  3. TreVeyon HendersonRBNE v NYG74%
  4. Kareem HuntRBKC v DAL73%
  5. Jahmyr GibbsRBDET v GB73%
  6. Kyren WilliamsRBLA v CAR71%
  7. Davante AdamsWRLA v CAR70%
  8. Travis EtienneRBJAX v TEN68%

The Slate

tap any game to expand the full report
CIN@BALBAL −12.0O/U 54.6CIN 21–33 BAL
CIN 19%BAL 81%
CINBengals
  1. QBJoe Flacco300 pass yd · 1.9 TD · 0.9 INT10%19.7
  2. RBChase Brown13 car · 66 yd   5-48 rec40%17.0
  3. WRJa'Marr Chase8-84 on 14 tgt17%13.4
  4. WRTee Higgins4-60 on 7 tgt54%12.7
  5. TEMike Gesicki5-50 on 7 tgt23%9.2
BALRavens
  1. QBLamar Jackson179 pass yd · 1.8 TD · 0.5 INT · 21 rush yd14%17.0
  2. RBDerrick Henry23 car · 117 yd   1-11 rec79%22.9
  3. WRZay Flowers4-60 on 6 tgt16%9.8
  4. TEMark Andrews2-26 on 3 tgt48%8.4
  5. WRRashod Bateman2-25 on 3 tgt25%5.2
ARI@TBTB −2.6O/U 52.6ARI 25–28 TB
ARI 42%TB 58%
ARICardinals
  1. QBJacoby Brissett362 pass yd · 2.2 TD · 0.7 INT · 14 rush yd20%25.5
  2. TETrey McBride8-81 on 11 tgt56%17.2
  3. WRMarvin Harrison Jr.6-74 on 11 tgt60%15.9
  4. WRMichael Wilson8-97 on 11 tgt15%14.5
  5. RBBam Knight8 car · 26 yd   3-24 rec40%9.7
TBBuccaneers
  1. QBBaker Mayfield162 pass yd · 1.4 TD · 0.8 INT · 12 rush yd18%13.6
  2. RBSean Tucker14 car · 64 yd   1-8 rec62%13.6
  3. WREmeka Egbuka5-58 on 10 tgt31%10.4
  4. WRTez Johnson3-30 on 4 tgt48%8.9
  5. TECade Otton5-49 on 7 tgt16%8.4
BUF@PITBUF −0.5O/U 52.5BUF 26–26 PIT
BUF 52%PIT 48%
BUFBills
  1. QBJosh Allen253 pass yd · 1.6 TD · 0.9 INT · 22 rush yd67%24.3
  2. RBJames Cook18 car · 102 yd   2-16 rec58%18.0
  3. WRKhalil Shakir6-58 on 7 tgt25%10.3
  4. TEDalton Kincaid3-43 on 4 tgt28%7.7
  5. WRKeon Coleman3-34 on 5 tgt28%6.7
PITSteelers
  1. QBAaron Rodgers173 pass yd · 1.3 TD · 0.5 INT3%12.0
  2. RBJaylen Warren14 car · 71 yd   1-7 rec50%12.7
  3. RBKenny Gainwell5 car · 32 yd   4-24 rec36%10.1
  4. WRDK Metcalf4-41 on 7 tgt27%8.3
  5. WRCalvin Austin III3-33 on 5 tgt10%5.6
KC@DALKC −4.0O/U 52.1KC 28–24 DAL
KC 62%DAL 38%
KCChiefs
  1. QBPatrick Mahomes310 pass yd · 1.6 TD · 0.9 INT · 13 rush yd8%19.8
  2. RBKareem Hunt17 car · 73 yd   2-12 rec73%17.3
  3. WRRashee Rice7-96 on 9 tgt37%16.3
  4. TETravis Kelce6-64 on 8 tgt45%13.0
  5. WRXavier Worthy4-52 on 6 tgt14%8.3
DALCowboys
  1. QBDak Prescott275 pass yd · 1.6 TD · 0.9 INT · 19 rush yd22%19.7
  2. WRGeorge Pickens8-96 on 10 tgt42%16.8
  3. WRCeeDee Lamb6-72 on 10 tgt30%12.7
  4. RBJavonte Williams16 car · 69 yd   1-9 rec43%11.9
  5. TEJake Ferguson4-40 on 5 tgt26%7.9
NYG@NENE −10.3O/U 50.8NYG 20–31 NE
NYG 22%NE 78%
NYGGiants
  1. QBJameis Winston292 pass yd · 1.3 TD · 1.0 INT · 14 rush yd22%18.7
  2. WRWan'Dale Robinson7-79 on 11 tgt24%12.9
  3. WRIsaiah Hodgins4-53 on 7 tgt32%9.6
  4. RBTyrone Tracy Jr.12 car · 39 yd   3-25 rec12%8.7
  5. TETheo Johnson4-50 on 6 tgt21%8.6
NEPatriots
  1. QBDrake Maye229 pass yd · 2.2 TD · 0.6 INT · 23 rush yd12%20.6
  2. RBTreVeyon Henderson17 car · 107 yd   2-14 rec74%21.3
  3. WRStefon Diggs4-44 on 6 tgt46%9.9
  4. RBRhamondre Stevenson12 car · 43 yd   1-9 rec27%7.8
  5. WRMack Hollins4-53 on 5 tgt11%7.8
CHI@PHIPHI −5.1O/U 46.9CHI 21–26 PHI
CHI 35%PHI 65%
CHIBears
  1. QBCaleb Williams253 pass yd · 1.1 TD · 0.3 INT · 31 rush yd18%18.6
  2. RBD'Andre Swift12 car · 50 yd   2-20 rec27%10.0
  3. RBKyle Monangai12 car · 51 yd   1-10 rec40%9.7
  4. WRRome Odunze4-60 on 8 tgt22%9.3
  5. TEColston Loveland4-43 on 5 tgt38%9.0
PHIEagles
  1. QBJalen Hurts200 pass yd · 1.9 TD · 0.1 INT · 28 rush yd49%22.4
  2. RBSaquon Barkley19 car · 98 yd   4-26 rec46%17.9
  3. WRA.J. Brown5-63 on 8 tgt32%11.2
  4. WRDeVonta Smith4-66 on 8 tgt28%10.7
  5. TEDallas Goedert3-28 on 4 tgt34%6.8
HOU@INDIND −2.7O/U 46.5HOU 22–25 IND
HOU 42%IND 58%
HOUTexans
  1. QBDavis Mills223 pass yd · 1.1 TD · 0.4 INT · 10 rush yd14%14.8
  2. WRNico Collins7-84 on 10 tgt27%13.6
  3. TEDalton Schultz5-52 on 7 tgt23%9.1
  4. WRJayden Higgins4-39 on 7 tgt40%8.9
  5. RBWoody Marks13 car · 48 yd   2-12 rec25%8.6
INDColts
  1. QBDaniel Jones220 pass yd · 1.5 TD · 1.1 INT · 17 rush yd20%16.5
  2. RBJonathan Taylor19 car · 107 yd   2-15 rec76%21.7
  3. WRMichael Pittman5-53 on 8 tgt39%10.7
  4. WRAlec Pierce3-56 on 7 tgt26%8.9
  5. TETyler Warren5-50 on 7 tgt14%8.5
JAX@TENJAX −7.1O/U 46.4JAX 27–20 TEN
JAX 70%TEN 30%
JAXJaguars
  1. QBTrevor Lawrence199 pass yd · 1.5 TD · 0.9 INT · 25 rush yd49%19.6
  2. RBTravis Etienne20 car · 94 yd   2-17 rec68%19.1
  3. WRParker Washington4-58 on 6 tgt39%11.2
  4. WRJakobi Meyers4-51 on 5 tgt28%8.8
  5. RBBhayshul Tuten10 car · 42 yd   1-4 rec44%8.3
TENTitans
  1. QBCam Ward225 pass yd · 1.0 TD · 0.5 INT · 17 rush yd16%15.2
  2. RBTyjae Spears5 car · 18 yd   4-29 rec21%7.9
  3. WRChimere Dike4-37 on 6 tgt22%7.1
  4. WRXavier Restrepo3-38 on 6 tgt18%6.7
  5. WRElic Ayomanor4-40 on 7 tgt12%6.6
MIN@SEASEA −11.3O/U 46.4MIN 18–29 SEA
MIN 20%SEA 80%
MINVikings
  1. QBJ.J. McCarthy168 pass yd · 0.8 TD · 1.8 INT · 18 rush yd16%10.9
  2. WRJustin Jefferson5-52 on 10 tgt20%9.3
  3. RBAaron Jones8 car · 32 yd   3-20 rec18%8.0
  4. WRJordan Addison2-28 on 6 tgt26%6.0
  5. TET.J. Hockenson3-28 on 4 tgt16%5.4
SEASeahawks
  1. QBSam Darnold220 pass yd · 1.8 TD · 0.9 INT6%16.1
  2. WRJaxon Smith-Njigba6-110 on 8 tgt55%19.3
  3. RBKenneth Walker III15 car · 63 yd   2-13 rec39%11.4
  4. RBZach Charbonnet11 car · 46 yd   0-4 rec49%9.2
  5. WRTory Horton2-35 on 4 tgt49%8.8
GB@DETDET −2.5O/U 44.6GB 21–24 DET
GB 42%DET 58%
🏟 dome
GBPackers
  1. QBJordan Love234 pass yd · 1.2 TD · 0.3 INT · 10 rush yd6%15.3
  2. RBJosh Jacobs14 car · 52 yd   3-16 rec49%12.3
  3. TETucker Kraft4-62 on 6 tgt46%11.9
  4. RBEmanuel Wilson11 car · 40 yd   2-10 rec41%9.0
  5. WRChristian Watson3-51 on 5 tgt28%8.6
DETLions
  1. QBJared Goff231 pass yd · 1.6 TD · 0.4 INT1%15.4
  2. RBJahmyr Gibbs13 car · 86 yd   6-35 rec73%22.8
  3. WRAmon-Ra St. Brown6-78 on 11 tgt41%14.2
  4. WRJameson Williams4-53 on 6 tgt44%10.6
  5. TESam LaPorta5-47 on 6 tgt36%10.0
ATL@NYJATL −1.0O/U 43.7ATL 22–21 NYJ
ATL 53%NYJ 47%
ATLFalcons
  1. QBMichael Penix Jr.186 pass yd · 1.5 TD · 0.1 INT5%14.4
  2. WRDrake London7-108 on 10 tgt65%20.5
  3. RBBijan Robinson15 car · 62 yd   4-27 rec38%13.5
  4. RBTyler Allgeier6 car · 24 yd   1-5 rec45%6.9
  5. WRDarnell Mooney2-34 on 5 tgt19%5.8
NYJJets
  1. QBTyrod Taylor216 pass yd · 1.2 TD · 1.0 INT · 21 rush yd16%15.7
  2. RBBreece Hall17 car · 81 yd   2-22 rec46%15.0
  3. WRJohn Metchie III3-34 on 4 tgt32%7.2
  4. WRAdonai Mitchell3-41 on 7 tgt15%6.5
  5. TEMason Taylor3-29 on 5 tgt22%6.0
DEN@WASDEN −7.8O/U 43.5DEN 26–18 WAS
DEN 72%WAS 28%
DENBroncos
  1. QBBo Nix228 pass yd · 2.1 TD · 0.7 INT · 12 rush yd9%18.6
  2. WRTroy Franklin5-69 on 8 tgt51%13.9
  3. RBJ.K. Dobbins18 car · 93 yd   1-8 rec20%12.0
  4. RBRJ Harvey7 car · 28 yd   2-21 rec53%10.6
  5. WRCourtland Sutton3-51 on 6 tgt24%8.4
WASCommanders
  1. QBMarcus Mariota204 pass yd · 0.9 TD · 0.8 INT · 29 rush yd10%14.6
  2. WRDeebo Samuel Sr.5-37 on 7 tgt32%8.5
  3. TEZach Ertz4-44 on 6 tgt11%7.0
  4. WRTerry McLaurin3-32 on 4 tgt27%6.4
  5. RBChris Rodriguez Jr.8 car · 30 yd   0-2 rec26%5.1
SF@CLESF −3.2O/U 42.0SF 23–19 CLE
SF 59%CLE 41%
SF49ers
  1. QBBrock Purdy191 pass yd · 1.9 TD · 1.4 INT · 12 rush yd11%15.9
  2. RBChristian McCaffrey18 car · 63 yd   6-44 rec68%20.2
  3. TEGeorge Kittle5-52 on 7 tgt49%11.7
  4. WRJauan Jennings4-52 on 7 tgt40%10.4
  5. RBBrian Robinson6 car · 26 yd   1-4 rec29%5.4
CLEBrowns
  1. QBDillon Gabriel150 pass yd · 1.3 TD · 0.5 INT · 16 rush yd7%12.6
  2. RBQuinshon Judkins15 car · 51 yd   2-8 rec36%9.3
  3. TEHarold Fannin Jr.4-42 on 7 tgt24%8.1
  4. WRJerry Jeudy3-43 on 6 tgt21%7.4
  5. RBDylan Sampson3 car · 11 yd   2-17 rec18%5.2
LA@CARLA −11.7O/U 41.5LA 27–15 CAR
LA 81%CAR 19%
LARams
  1. QBMatthew Stafford214 pass yd · 2.5 TD · 0.1 INT6%19.2
  2. RBKyren Williams18 car · 96 yd   1-6 rec71%18.1
  3. WRDavante Adams4-48 on 7 tgt70%14.0
  4. WRPuka Nacua5-69 on 7 tgt41%13.2
  5. TEColby Parkinson2-27 on 3 tgt38%6.8
CARPanthers
  1. QBBryce Young215 pass yd · 0.7 TD · 1.3 INT4%11.2
  2. WRTetairoa McMillan6-73 on 10 tgt35%12.7
  3. RBRico Dowdle13 car · 48 yd   3-21 rec32%10.7
  4. WRXavier Legette2-30 on 4 tgt14%5.1
  5. WRJalen Coker3-29 on 4 tgt6%4.6
LV@LACLAC −7.9O/U 40.4LV 16–24 LAC
LV 28%LAC 72%
🏟 dome
LVRaiders
  1. QBGeno Smith238 pass yd · 1.0 TD · 1.0 INT · 13 rush yd6%14.0
  2. TEBrock Bowers7-73 on 10 tgt42%14.1
  3. RBAshton Jeanty12 car · 44 yd   6-34 rec39%13.6
  4. WRTre Tucker3-38 on 7 tgt20%6.9
  5. WRJakobi Meyers4-38 on 6 tgt15%6.7
LACChargers
  1. QBJustin Herbert178 pass yd · 1.5 TD · 0.6 INT · 34 rush yd25%17.5
  2. RBKimani Vidal18 car · 66 yd   1-7 rec47%11.6
  3. WRLadd McConkey4-59 on 6 tgt35%10.5
  4. WRQuentin Johnston3-38 on 6 tgt28%7.5
  5. TEOronde Gadsden II3-40 on 5 tgt24%7.3
NO@MIAMIA −6.4O/U 37.8NO 16–22 MIA
NO 32%MIA 68%
NOSaints
  1. QBTyler Shough244 pass yd · 0.8 TD · 0.6 INT · 12 rush yd6%13.9
  2. WRRashid Shaheed8-78 on 11 tgt15%12.7
  3. WRChris Olave7-75 on 10 tgt21%12.5
  4. TEJuwan Johnson5-64 on 6 tgt28%10.8
  5. RBAlvin Kamara8 car · 36 yd   2-19 rec10%7.2
MIADolphins
  1. QBTua Tagovailoa194 pass yd · 1.6 TD · 0.6 INT3%13.9
  2. RBDe'Von Achane20 car · 106 yd   6-39 rec54%21.9
  3. WRJaylen Waddle5-71 on 7 tgt34%11.9
  4. WRMalik Washington2-30 on 3 tgt28%6.8
  5. TEGreg Dulcich3-29 on 4 tgt12%5.1