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NFL Week 12 2025 – Model Preview

Read this first. These are model projections, not betting advice or predictions. It’s the season opener, so the model is seeded from 2025 form (via Efficiency+ (HFA, recency, regression), 2025 in-season (through wk11)) — the least reliable week of the year: rookies have no data, roles are unsettled, and prior-season spreads run hotter than the market will. No market lines are posted yet, so there are no edges here to bet — just the model’s numbers. For entertainment only. 18+/21+. Problem gambling? BeGambleAware.org (UK) · 1-800-GAMBLER (US).

Model’s Sharpest Reads

projections, no market to beat

Most Confident

Highest projected win probability.

  1. SEA over TEN 83% win
  2. NE over CIN 81% win
  3. DET over NYG 78% win
  4. LA over TB 77% win

Projected Shootouts

Highest projected totals.

  1. NE@CIN56.9
  2. PHI@DAL51.5
  3. NYG@DET51.3

Projected Slugfests

Lowest projected totals.

  1. CLE@LV37.6
  2. ATL@NO39.6
  3. MIN@GB41.6

TD Magnets

highest anytime-touchdown probability
  1. Jonathan TaylorRBIND v KC87%
  2. Jahmyr GibbsRBDET v NYG80%
  3. Davante AdamsWRLA v TB79%
  4. Christian McCaffreyRBSF v CAR78%
  5. Kyren WilliamsRBLA v TB75%
  6. TreVeyon HendersonRBNE v CIN72%
  7. Trey McBrideTEARI v JAX70%
  8. Josh JacobsRBGB v MIN65%

The Slate

tap any game to expand the full report
NE@CINNE −11.9O/U 56.9NE 34–22 CIN
NE 81%CIN 19%
NEPatriots
  1. QBDrake Maye248 pass yd · 2.8 TD · 0.6 INT · 30 rush yd13%24.3
  2. RBTreVeyon Henderson14 car · 89 yd   2-14 rec72%19.0
  3. RBRhamondre Stevenson18 car · 89 yd   2-11 rec59%16.1
  4. WRStefon Diggs5-53 on 6 tgt48%11.7
  5. WRMack Hollins4-54 on 5 tgt12%8.1
CINBengals
  1. QBJoe Flacco351 pass yd · 3.1 TD · 0.8 INT15%27.4
  2. WRJa'Marr Chase10-116 on 16 tgt32%19.0
  3. WRTee Higgins5-83 on 8 tgt65%16.9
  4. RBChase Brown11 car · 50 yd   6-35 rec41%14.7
  5. TENoah Fant4-38 on 4 tgt34%8.2
PHI@DALPHI −2.5O/U 51.5PHI 27–25 DAL
PHI 57%DAL 43%
PHIEagles
  1. QBJalen Hurts214 pass yd · 2.5 TD · 0.1 INT · 20 rush yd27%22.5
  2. RBSaquon Barkley21 car · 96 yd   2-19 rec45%16.3
  3. WRDeVonta Smith5-92 on 8 tgt42%15.2
  4. WRA.J. Brown5-67 on 6 tgt46%12.7
  5. TEDallas Goedert3-27 on 4 tgt36%7.0
DALCowboys
  1. QBDak Prescott231 pass yd · 1.7 TD · 0.7 INT · 19 rush yd10%18.0
  2. WRCeeDee Lamb6-75 on 10 tgt42%13.7
  3. RBJavonte Williams17 car · 72 yd   1-10 rec55%13.7
  4. WRGeorge Pickens6-82 on 9 tgt29%13.1
  5. TEJake Ferguson4-24 on 5 tgt46%7.9
NYG@DETDET −10.2O/U 51.3NYG 21–31 DET
NYG 22%DET 78%
🏟 dome
NYGGiants
  1. QBJaxson Dart242 pass yd · 1.8 TD · 0.5 INT · 34 rush yd56%24.8
  2. WRWan'Dale Robinson6-66 on 10 tgt11%10.2
  3. RBCam Skattebo8 car · 31 yd   3-21 rec43%10.0
  4. TETheo Johnson4-46 on 6 tgt32%8.9
  5. WRIsaiah Hodgins4-54 on 7 tgt19%8.8
DETLions
  1. QBJared Goff231 pass yd · 2.2 TD · 0.4 INT4%18.2
  2. RBJahmyr Gibbs15 car · 108 yd   3-35 rec80%25.3
  3. WRAmon-Ra St. Brown5-70 on 10 tgt46%13.3
  4. WRJameson Williams3-54 on 5 tgt50%11.3
  5. RBDavid Montgomery13 car · 59 yd   2-10 rec40%10.6
JAX@ARIJAX −3.9O/U 50.9JAX 27–24 ARI
JAX 61%ARI 39%
JAXJaguars
  1. QBTrevor Lawrence195 pass yd · 0.8 TD · 0.6 INT · 22 rush yd48%16.7
  2. RBTravis Etienne17 car · 73 yd   2-16 rec62%15.8
  3. WRParker Washington4-48 on 7 tgt31%9.6
  4. RBBhayshul Tuten9 car · 37 yd   0-3 rec43%7.7
  5. WRBrian Thomas Jr.3-43 on 6 tgt18%7.1
ARICardinals
  1. QBJacoby Brissett310 pass yd · 2.6 TD · 0.7 INT · 17 rush yd21%25.2
  2. TETrey McBride9-99 on 12 tgt70%21.5
  3. WRMarvin Harrison Jr.4-60 on 10 tgt48%12.2
  4. WRMichael Wilson6-68 on 9 tgt13%10.6
  5. RBBam Knight9 car · 30 yd   3-18 rec28%8.1
IND@KCKC −0.4O/U 50.0IND 25–25 KC
IND 49%KC 51%
INDColts
  1. QBDaniel Jones288 pass yd · 1.5 TD · 1.0 INT · 17 rush yd22%19.9
  2. RBJonathan Taylor18 car · 120 yd   2-21 rec87%27.4
  3. WRMichael Pittman6-63 on 8 tgt40%12.7
  4. WRAlec Pierce5-78 on 9 tgt29%12.3
  5. TETyler Warren6-69 on 7 tgt29%11.8
KCChiefs
  1. QBPatrick Mahomes263 pass yd · 1.8 TD · 1.2 INT · 13 rush yd8%18.2
  2. WRRashee Rice6-60 on 9 tgt56%14.4
  3. TETravis Kelce5-78 on 7 tgt42%13.7
  4. RBIsiah Pacheco14 car · 55 yd   1-4 rec44%9.6
  5. RBKareem Hunt9 car · 39 yd   1-5 rec54%9.4
TB@LALA −9.8O/U 49.9TB 20–30 LA
TB 23%LA 77%
🏟 dome
TBBuccaneers
  1. QBBaker Mayfield225 pass yd · 1.1 TD · 0.8 INT9%13.7
  2. WREmeka Egbuka6-72 on 12 tgt27%11.8
  3. WRTez Johnson4-43 on 6 tgt44%9.8
  4. TECade Otton6-50 on 8 tgt14%9.0
  5. RBSean Tucker9 car · 36 yd   1-8 rec43%8.3
LARams
  1. QBMatthew Stafford212 pass yd · 3.9 TD · 0.1 INT9%24.9
  2. RBKyren Williams18 car · 90 yd   1-11 rec75%19.1
  3. WRDavante Adams4-43 on 7 tgt79%15.6
  4. WRPuka Nacua5-61 on 7 tgt50%13.3
  5. RBBlake Corum13 car · 49 yd   1-4 rec18%6.7
PIT@CHIPIT −1.2O/U 49.3PIT 25–24 CHI
PIT 54%CHI 46%
PITSteelers
  1. QBAaron Rodgers212 pass yd · 2.3 TD · 0.9 INT3%17.3
  2. RBJaylen Warren14 car · 79 yd   2-14 rec41%13.6
  3. WRDK Metcalf4-49 on 6 tgt23%8.2
  4. RBKenny Gainwell4 car · 18 yd   3-23 rec32%8.1
  5. TEPat Freiermuth3-35 on 4 tgt38%7.9
CHIBears
  1. QBCaleb Williams235 pass yd · 0.8 TD · 0.5 INT · 28 rush yd20%16.5
  2. RBD'Andre Swift16 car · 79 yd   2-14 rec45%14.0
  3. RBKyle Monangai13 car · 62 yd   1-10 rec47%11.7
  4. TEColston Loveland4-51 on 5 tgt32%9.3
  5. WRRome Odunze4-55 on 7 tgt23%9.0
NYJ@BALBAL −7.2O/U 47.2NYJ 20–27 BAL
NYJ 30%BAL 70%
NYJJets
  1. QBTyrod Taylor148 pass yd · 0.5 TD · 1.0 INT · 13 rush yd10%8.9
  2. RBBreece Hall14 car · 72 yd   2-15 rec42%12.8
  3. WRJosh Reynolds5-55 on 10 tgt23%9.5
  4. TEMason Taylor4-36 on 5 tgt23%7.1
  5. WRAdonai Mitchell3-36 on 6 tgt18%6.4
BALRavens
  1. QBLamar Jackson171 pass yd · 2.0 TD · 0.6 INT · 23 rush yd15%17.7
  2. RBDerrick Henry22 car · 95 yd   1-8 rec64%17.1
  3. WRZay Flowers4-60 on 6 tgt15%9.4
  4. TEMark Andrews3-22 on 4 tgt47%7.7
  5. WRRashod Bateman2-25 on 3 tgt23%4.9
BUF@HOUHOU −2.3O/U 46.9BUF 22–25 HOU
BUF 43%HOU 57%
BUFBills
  1. QBJosh Allen223 pass yd · 1.4 TD · 0.9 INT · 23 rush yd66%22.1
  2. RBJames Cook18 car · 82 yd   2-16 rec48%14.5
  3. WRKhalil Shakir4-42 on 7 tgt25%8.2
  4. TEDalton Kincaid3-38 on 4 tgt25%7.0
  5. WRKeon Coleman3-30 on 5 tgt25%5.9
HOUTexans
  1. QBDavis Mills229 pass yd · 1.0 TD · 0.5 INT · 11 rush yd18%15.0
  2. WRNico Collins7-85 on 11 tgt30%14.0
  3. RBWoody Marks13 car · 56 yd   2-15 rec36%10.9
  4. TEDalton Schultz5-57 on 8 tgt26%10.2
  5. WRXavier Hutchinson3-39 on 5 tgt23%7.0
SEA@TENSEA −12.8O/U 45.9SEA 29–17 TEN
SEA 83%TEN 17%
SEASeahawks
  1. QBSam Darnold229 pass yd · 1.7 TD · 1.1 INT8%16.2
  2. WRJaxon Smith-Njigba7-110 on 9 tgt46%18.5
  3. RBZach Charbonnet13 car · 61 yd   1-6 rec63%13.0
  4. RBKenneth Walker III17 car · 76 yd   1-8 rec40%12.0
  5. WRTory Horton2-28 on 3 tgt40%6.9
TENTitans
  1. QBCam Ward220 pass yd · 0.7 TD · 0.7 INT4%11.8
  2. RBTyjae Spears5 car · 19 yd   3-25 rec18%7.2
  3. WRChimere Dike3-36 on 5 tgt18%6.6
  4. RBTony Pollard8 car · 26 yd   3-18 rec11%6.4
  5. WRElic Ayomanor3-35 on 7 tgt9%5.7
CAR@SFSF −5.7O/U 44.9CAR 20–25 SF
CAR 34%SF 66%
CARPanthers
  1. QBBryce Young219 pass yd · 1.1 TD · 0.4 INT5%13.8
  2. WRTetairoa McMillan6-81 on 9 tgt31%13.4
  3. RBRico Dowdle16 car · 64 yd   2-16 rec40%12.3
  4. WRXavier Legette4-48 on 6 tgt27%8.6
  5. RBChuba Hubbard7 car · 23 yd   1-8 rec19%5.0
SF49ers
  1. QBBrock Purdy183 pass yd · 1.8 TD · 0.3 INT5%14.7
  2. RBChristian McCaffrey18 car · 87 yd   5-41 rec78%24.4
  3. TEGeorge Kittle4-48 on 5 tgt49%11.1
  4. WRJauan Jennings4-48 on 6 tgt33%9.2
  5. RBBrian Robinson6 car · 34 yd   0-2 rec33%6.1
MIN@GBGB −5.3O/U 41.6MIN 18–23 GB
MIN 35%GB 65%
MINVikings
  1. QBCarson Wentz211 pass yd · 0.6 TD · 1.1 INT6%11.0
  2. WRJustin Jefferson6-63 on 11 tgt20%10.7
  3. WRJordan Addison4-52 on 8 tgt29%9.5
  4. RBAaron Jones9 car · 40 yd   3-18 rec23%9.1
  5. TET.J. Hockenson3-24 on 5 tgt18%5.3
GBPackers
  1. QBJordan Love226 pass yd · 1.3 TD · 0.2 INT · 11 rush yd7%15.5
  2. RBJosh Jacobs15 car · 58 yd   2-12 rec65%14.3
  3. TETucker Kraft5-61 on 7 tgt54%13.1
  4. WRChristian Watson3-50 on 4 tgt30%8.5
  5. WRRomeo Doubs4-58 on 7 tgt10%8.4
ATL@NOATL −0.6O/U 39.6ATL 20–19 NO
ATL 52%NO 48%
🏟 dome
ATLFalcons
  1. QBMichael Penix Jr.211 pass yd · 1.4 TD · 0.1 INT4%14.8
  2. WRDrake London7-94 on 10 tgt54%17.3
  3. RBBijan Robinson15 car · 58 yd   5-31 rec42%14.6
  4. TEKyle Pitts5-45 on 7 tgt11%7.7
  5. RBTyler Allgeier5 car · 19 yd   1-4 rec38%5.5
NOSaints
  1. QBTyler Shough206 pass yd · 1.1 TD · 0.8 INT7%13.3
  2. WRChris Olave5-80 on 8 tgt43%13.9
  3. WRRashid Shaheed6-72 on 10 tgt13%11.1
  4. TEJuwan Johnson4-60 on 6 tgt32%10.2
  5. RBAlvin Kamara11 car · 42 yd   2-16 rec14%7.7
CLE@LVCLE −0.5O/U 37.6CLE 19–19 LV
CLE 52%LV 48%
🏟 dome
CLEBrowns
  1. QBDillon Gabriel135 pass yd · 0.9 TD · 0.4 INT · 16 rush yd6%10.6
  2. RBQuinshon Judkins18 car · 59 yd   2-7 rec48%11.2
  3. TEHarold Fannin Jr.4-42 on 6 tgt23%7.9
  4. WRJerry Jeudy3-37 on 6 tgt20%6.8
  5. WRCedric Tillman3-32 on 4 tgt10%5.2
LVRaiders
  1. QBGeno Smith192 pass yd · 1.3 TD · 0.9 INT · 12 rush yd7%13.5
  2. TEBrock Bowers6-67 on 9 tgt51%14.3
  3. RBAshton Jeanty11 car · 33 yd   4-22 rec33%9.7
  4. WRTre Tucker4-42 on 5 tgt20%7.4
  5. WRJakobi Meyers4-44 on 6 tgt16%7.4