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NFL Week 5 2025 – Model Preview

Read this first. These are model projections, not betting advice or predictions. It’s the season opener, so the model is seeded from 2025 form (via Efficiency+ (HFA, recency, regression), 2025 in-season (through wk4)) — the least reliable week of the year: rookies have no data, roles are unsettled, and prior-season spreads run hotter than the market will. No market lines are posted yet, so there are no edges here to bet — just the model’s numbers. For entertainment only. 18+/21+. Problem gambling? BeGambleAware.org (UK) · 1-800-GAMBLER (US).

Model’s Sharpest Reads

projections, no market to beat

Most Confident

Highest projected win probability.

  1. DET over CIN 83% win
  2. ARI over TEN 75% win
  3. IND over LV 71% win
  4. SEA over TB 70% win

Projected Shootouts

Highest projected totals.

  1. DAL@NYJ56.0
  2. DET@CIN51.2
  3. TB@SEA49.1

Projected Slugfests

Lowest projected totals.

  1. MIN@CLE41.4
  2. TEN@ARI42.9
  3. KC@JAX44.1

TD Magnets

highest anytime-touchdown probability
  1. Amon-Ra St. BrownWRDET v CIN77%
  2. Jahmyr GibbsRBDET v CIN77%
  3. James CookRBBUF v NE75%
  4. Jonathan TaylorRBIND v LV70%
  5. Javonte WilliamsRBDAL v NYJ69%
  6. David MontgomeryRBDET v CIN65%
  7. George PickensWRDAL v NYJ64%
  8. Kenneth Walker IIIRBSEA v TB62%

The Slate

tap any game to expand the full report
DAL@NYJNYJ −0.2O/U 56.0DAL 28–28 NYJ
DAL 49%NYJ 51%
DALCowboys
  1. QBDak Prescott308 pass yd · 2.3 TD · 0.8 INT12%22.3
  2. WRCeeDee Lamb8-125 on 12 tgt26%18.3
  3. WRGeorge Pickens5-86 on 8 tgt64%17.4
  4. RBJavonte Williams16 car · 66 yd   4-18 rec69%17.2
  5. TEJake Ferguson8-48 on 10 tgt33%11.1
NYJJets
  1. QBTyrod Taylor161 pass yd · 2.0 TD · 0.4 INT · 29 rush yd17%18.2
  2. WRGarrett Wilson7-92 on 10 tgt57%17.8
  3. RBBreece Hall13 car · 52 yd   4-32 rec20%11.7
  4. TEMason Taylor3-31 on 4 tgt12%5.4
  5. RBBraelon Allen4 car · 17 yd   1-5 rec23%4.1
DET@CINDET −12.6O/U 51.2DET 32–19 CIN
DET 83%CIN 17%
DETLions
  1. QBJared Goff208 pass yd · 2.9 TD · 0.6 INT7%20.2
  2. RBJahmyr Gibbs17 car · 84 yd   4-26 rec77%22.1
  3. WRAmon-Ra St. Brown6-68 on 7 tgt77%18.7
  4. RBDavid Montgomery12 car · 72 yd   1-10 rec65%15.1
  5. WRJameson Williams2-44 on 4 tgt29%8.0
CINBengals
  1. QBJake Browning224 pass yd · 1.3 TD · 1.9 INT12%13.5
  2. WRJa'Marr Chase6-80 on 10 tgt26%13.1
  3. RBChase Brown12 car · 31 yd   3-20 rec24%8.2
  4. WRTee Higgins3-44 on 6 tgt21%7.2
  5. TENoah Fant4-33 on 5 tgt24%6.8
TB@SEASEA −6.9O/U 49.1TB 21–28 SEA
TB 30%SEA 70%
TBBuccaneers
  1. QBBaker Mayfield215 pass yd · 1.6 TD · 0.5 INT · 24 rush yd8%17.6
  2. RBBucky Irving16 car · 45 yd   5-50 rec36%14.6
  3. WREmeka Egbuka4-57 on 8 tgt56%13.0
  4. WRMike Evans5-48 on 10 tgt32%9.5
  5. WRChris Godwin Jr.5-48 on 11 tgt27%9.1
SEASeahawks
  1. QBSam Darnold188 pass yd · 1.4 TD · 0.4 INT4%13.5
  2. RBKenneth Walker III16 car · 54 yd   1-13 rec62%13.2
  3. WRJaxon Smith-Njigba5-67 on 8 tgt32%11.9
  4. RBZach Charbonnet14 car · 35 yd   0-4 rec56%9.0
  5. WRCooper Kupp3-30 on 5 tgt12%5.2
LV@INDIND −7.5O/U 48.7LV 21–28 IND
LV 29%IND 71%
LVRaiders
  1. QBGeno Smith250 pass yd · 1.8 TD · 2.1 INT · 16 rush yd7%17.1
  2. WRTre Tucker4-57 on 6 tgt51%12.6
  3. RBAshton Jeanty15 car · 67 yd   2-8 rec46%12.1
  4. WRJakobi Meyers6-72 on 9 tgt12%11.1
  5. TEBrock Bowers5-56 on 7 tgt12%9.0
INDColts
  1. QBDaniel Jones246 pass yd · 1.0 TD · 0.4 INT · 17 rush yd47%19.0
  2. RBJonathan Taylor21 car · 109 yd   3-18 rec70%21.3
  3. WRMichael Pittman5-58 on 7 tgt51%12.7
  4. TETyler Warren4-60 on 6 tgt22%9.9
  5. WRAlec Pierce3-45 on 4 tgt13%6.8
NE@BUFBUF −2.9O/U 48.6NE 23–26 BUF
NE 42%BUF 58%
NEPatriots
  1. QBDrake Maye211 pass yd · 2.1 TD · 0.4 INT · 26 rush yd35%21.7
  2. TEHunter Henry4-43 on 6 tgt46%10.2
  3. RBRhamondre Stevenson7 car · 37 yd   2-21 rec14%7.8
  4. RBTreVeyon Henderson6 car · 30 yd   3-17 rec25%7.6
  5. WRStefon Diggs4-46 on 6 tgt12%7.5
BUFBills
  1. QBJosh Allen260 pass yd · 2.2 TD · 0.4 INT · 38 rush yd51%27.0
  2. RBJames Cook20 car · 80 yd   3-23 rec75%20.1
  3. WRKhalil Shakir4-51 on 5 tgt36%9.7
  4. WRKeon Coleman4-55 on 5 tgt26%9.4
  5. TEDalton Kincaid3-43 on 4 tgt44%9.4
WAS@LACLAC −2.5O/U 46.7WAS 22–25 LAC
WAS 42%LAC 58%
🏟 dome
WASCommanders
  1. QBJayden Daniels198 pass yd · 1.3 TD · 0.3 INT · 42 rush yd18%18.1
  2. WRDeebo Samuel Sr.5-43 on 7 tgt42%10.7
  3. TEZach Ertz3-32 on 5 tgt33%7.2
  4. RBJacory Croskey-Merritt7 car · 35 yd   1-5 rec33%6.8
  5. RBAustin Ekeler7 car · 24 yd   3-16 rec18%6.6
LACChargers
  1. QBJustin Herbert294 pass yd · 2.2 TD · 0.6 INT · 23 rush yd10%23.0
  2. WRQuentin Johnston6-90 on 9 tgt60%17.3
  3. WRKeenan Allen6-69 on 8 tgt51%14.0
  4. RBOmarion Hampton14 car · 54 yd   3-30 rec46%13.5
  5. WRLadd McConkey4-53 on 7 tgt13%8.1
HOU@BALBAL −0.2O/U 46.6HOU 23–23 BAL
HOU 50%BAL 50%
HOUTexans
  1. QBC.J. Stroud205 pass yd · 1.3 TD · 0.6 INT · 21 rush yd9%15.7
  2. WRNico Collins4-60 on 8 tgt38%11.1
  3. RBNick Chubb12 car · 55 yd   2-12 rec29%9.7
  4. RBWoody Marks7 car · 34 yd   2-16 rec32%8.1
  5. TEDalton Schultz4-40 on 5 tgt12%6.9
BALRavens
  1. QBLamar Jackson176 pass yd · 1.8 TD · 0.2 INT · 34 rush yd23%19.0
  2. RBDerrick Henry12 car · 64 yd   1-6 rec50%11.7
  3. WRZay Flowers5-63 on 8 tgt28%11.1
  4. TEMark Andrews3-25 on 4 tgt33%6.8
  5. RBJustice Hill2 car · 11 yd   3-20 rec27%6.3
MIA@CARCAR −2.1O/U 46.6MIA 22–24 CAR
MIA 44%CAR 56%
MIADolphins
  1. QBTua Tagovailoa194 pass yd · 1.4 TD · 1.2 INT5%12.9
  2. RBDe'Von Achane12 car · 69 yd   5-35 rec49%16.9
  3. WRTyreek Hill5-54 on 7 tgt26%9.5
  4. TEDarren Waller3-34 on 4 tgt45%8.6
  5. WRJaylen Waddle4-39 on 6 tgt35%8.3
CARPanthers
  1. QBBryce Young222 pass yd · 1.7 TD · 0.7 INT · 12 rush yd17%17.2
  2. RBChuba Hubbard14 car · 63 yd   4-28 rec38%13.7
  3. WRTetairoa McMillan5-75 on 9 tgt14%10.9
  4. WRHunter Renfrow4-30 on 5 tgt35%7.4
  5. WRXavier Legette4-34 on 7 tgt20%6.7
NYG@NONYG −1.4O/U 45.2NYG 23–22 NO
NYG 54%NO 46%
🏟 dome
NYGGiants
  1. QBRussell Wilson221 pass yd · 1.1 TD · 0.6 INT · 21 rush yd9%15.2
  2. WRMalik Nabers5-80 on 9 tgt39%13.6
  3. RBCam Skattebo12 car · 46 yd   3-21 rec42%11.7
  4. WRWan'Dale Robinson5-67 on 7 tgt25%10.9
  5. RBTyrone Tracy Jr.8 car · 26 yd   3-20 rec18%7.4
NOSaints
  1. QBSpencer Rattler190 pass yd · 1.1 TD · 0.3 INT · 22 rush yd9%14.3
  2. RBAlvin Kamara16 car · 77 yd   3-17 rec30%13.2
  3. WRChris Olave7-57 on 11 tgt28%11.0
  4. WRRashid Shaheed4-46 on 6 tgt25%8.8
  5. TEJuwan Johnson5-42 on 8 tgt26%8.5
DEN@PHIPHI −1.6O/U 44.6DEN 21–23 PHI
DEN 45%PHI 55%
DENBroncos
  1. QBBo Nix205 pass yd · 1.3 TD · 1.0 INT · 23 rush yd23%16.4
  2. RBJ.K. Dobbins14 car · 77 yd   1-10 rec48%13.4
  3. WRCourtland Sutton4-55 on 7 tgt45%11.1
  4. WRTroy Franklin4-45 on 7 tgt25%8.4
  5. RBRJ Harvey7 car · 33 yd   2-20 rec21%7.8
PHIEagles
  1. QBJalen Hurts143 pass yd · 1.0 TD · 0.1 INT · 45 rush yd59%19.5
  2. RBSaquon Barkley20 car · 70 yd   3-24 rec56%16.0
  3. TEDallas Goedert3-34 on 4 tgt45%8.5
  4. WRA.J. Brown4-34 on 7 tgt26%6.9
  5. WRDeVonta Smith4-31 on 5 tgt23%6.4
SF@LALA −3.1O/U 44.4SF 21–24 LA
SF 41%LA 59%
🏟 dome
SF49ers
  1. QBMac Jones287 pass yd · 1.6 TD · 0.7 INT · 12 rush yd10%19.0
  2. RBChristian McCaffrey16 car · 52 yd   8-60 rec42%18.3
  3. WRRicky Pearsall5-75 on 8 tgt12%11.0
  4. WRJauan Jennings4-47 on 6 tgt27%8.4
  5. TEJake Tonges3-35 on 4 tgt29%7.1
LARams
  1. QBMatthew Stafford221 pass yd · 1.7 TD · 0.5 INT7%16.2
  2. WRPuka Nacua10-104 on 12 tgt34%18.4
  3. RBKyren Williams18 car · 75 yd   2-11 rec40%12.8
  4. WRDavante Adams5-59 on 8 tgt49%12.3
  5. RBBlake Corum6 car · 28 yd   1-5 rec24%5.3
KC@JAXJAX −0.2O/U 44.1KC 22–22 JAX
KC 50%JAX 50%
KCChiefs
  1. QBPatrick Mahomes217 pass yd · 1.6 TD · 0.4 INT · 30 rush yd33%20.1
  2. WRMarquise Brown5-46 on 8 tgt26%8.9
  3. TETravis Kelce4-45 on 6 tgt23%8.1
  4. WRTyquan Thornton2-36 on 5 tgt41%8.0
  5. WRXavier Worthy2-31 on 4 tgt17%6.1
JAXJaguars
  1. QBTrevor Lawrence203 pass yd · 1.0 TD · 1.1 INT · 13 rush yd8%13.0
  2. RBTravis Etienne16 car · 110 yd   2-12 rec47%17.0
  3. TEBrenton Strange5-46 on 6 tgt11%7.8
  4. WRBrian Thomas Jr.4-42 on 8 tgt15%7.4
  5. WRDyami Brown3-33 on 5 tgt26%7.3
TEN@ARIARI −9.1O/U 42.9TEN 17–26 ARI
TEN 25%ARI 75%
TENTitans
  1. QBCam Ward170 pass yd · 0.5 TD · 0.5 INT · 10 rush yd5%9.5
  2. RBTony Pollard15 car · 51 yd   2-16 rec21%9.1
  3. WRElic Ayomanor4-40 on 7 tgt30%8.0
  4. TEChig Okonkwo4-38 on 5 tgt9%6.3
  5. WRCalvin Ridley3-38 on 6 tgt9%6.0
ARICardinals
  1. QBKyler Murray185 pass yd · 1.6 TD · 0.7 INT · 34 rush yd12%17.1
  2. RBJames Conner12 car · 49 yd   2-13 rec47%11.0
  3. WRMarvin Harrison Jr.4-54 on 6 tgt38%10.3
  4. TETrey McBride6-49 on 8 tgt28%9.9
  5. RBTrey Benson8 car · 48 yd   3-16 rec17%8.9
MIN@CLEMIN −5.5O/U 41.4MIN 23–18 CLE
MIN 66%CLE 34%
MINVikings
  1. QBCarson Wentz226 pass yd · 2.2 TD · 0.8 INT8%18.3
  2. WRJustin Jefferson5-76 on 7 tgt26%12.2
  3. WRJordan Addison5-82 on 8 tgt24%12.1
  4. RBJordan Mason15 car · 57 yd   1-7 rec44%10.5
  5. RBZavier Scott5 car · 17 yd   3-21 rec32%7.7
CLEBrowns
  1. QBJoe Flacco218 pass yd · 0.5 TD · 1.4 INT4%10.1
  2. RBQuinshon Judkins15 car · 72 yd   2-14 rec40%12.8
  3. WRJerry Jeudy4-56 on 8 tgt10%8.3
  4. WRCedric Tillman3-36 on 5 tgt28%7.2
  5. TEHarold Fannin Jr.4-35 on 6 tgt11%6.6