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NFL Week 3 2025 – Model Preview

Read this first. These are model projections, not betting advice or predictions. It’s the season opener, so the model is seeded from 2025 form (via Efficiency+ (HFA, recency, regression), 2025 in-season (through wk2)) — the least reliable week of the year: rookies have no data, roles are unsettled, and prior-season spreads run hotter than the market will. No market lines are posted yet, so there are no edges here to bet — just the model’s numbers. For entertainment only. 18+/21+. Problem gambling? BeGambleAware.org (UK) · 1-800-GAMBLER (US).

Model’s Sharpest Reads

projections, no market to beat

Most Confident

Highest projected win probability.

  1. BUF over MIA 75% win
  2. GB over CLE 68% win
  3. TB over NYJ 67% win
  4. IND over TEN 62% win

Projected Shootouts

Highest projected totals.

  1. DAL@CHI56.5
  2. DET@BAL55.1
  3. PIT@NE50.8

Projected Slugfests

Lowest projected totals.

  1. LV@WAS38.1
  2. LA@PHI41.9
  3. ATL@CAR42.4

TD Magnets

highest anytime-touchdown probability
  1. James CookRBBUF v MIA82%
  2. Javonte WilliamsRBDAL v CHI82%
  3. Rome OdunzeWRCHI v DAL73%
  4. Amon-Ra St. BrownWRDET v BAL71%
  5. Josh JacobsRBGB v CLE65%
  6. Derrick HenryRBBAL v DET64%
  7. Emeka EgbukaWRTB v NYJ62%
  8. Quentin JohnstonWRLAC v DEN61%

The Slate

tap any game to expand the full report
DAL@CHIDAL −4.1O/U 56.5DAL 30–26 CHI
DAL 62%CHI 38%
DALCowboys
  1. QBDak Prescott307 pass yd · 1.9 TD · 0.6 INT12%21.1
  2. RBJavonte Williams18 car · 93 yd   4-30 rec82%24.7
  3. WRCeeDee Lamb8-120 on 12 tgt27%17.7
  4. WRGeorge Pickens4-57 on 6 tgt42%11.0
  5. TEJake Ferguson7-48 on 9 tgt20%9.7
CHIBears
  1. QBCaleb Williams258 pass yd · 1.9 TD · 0.5 INT · 32 rush yd37%23.4
  2. WRRome Odunze7-101 on 10 tgt73%21.6
  3. RBD'Andre Swift14 car · 52 yd   3-16 rec46%12.1
  4. WRDJ Moore4-61 on 6 tgt21%10.2
  5. WROlamide Zaccheaus4-47 on 6 tgt20%8.3
DET@BALBAL −2.8O/U 55.1DET 26–29 BAL
DET 42%BAL 58%
DETLions
  1. QBJared Goff257 pass yd · 2.8 TD · 0.5 INT6%21.9
  2. WRAmon-Ra St. Brown6-64 on 9 tgt71%17.0
  3. RBJahmyr Gibbs10 car · 54 yd   6-27 rec45%14.9
  4. RBDavid Montgomery10 car · 47 yd   2-12 rec41%10.3
  5. TESam LaPorta5-60 on 7 tgt16%9.7
BALRavens
  1. QBLamar Jackson211 pass yd · 3.4 TD · 0.2 INT · 26 rush yd34%27.0
  2. WRZay Flowers7-110 on 10 tgt50%19.2
  3. RBDerrick Henry15 car · 83 yd   0-2 rec64%14.8
  4. WRDeAndre Hopkins1-26 on 2 tgt31%5.5
  5. WRDevontez Walker1-19 on 2 tgt34%5.1
PIT@NENE −2.6O/U 50.8PIT 24–27 NE
PIT 42%NE 58%
PITSteelers
  1. QBAaron Rodgers263 pass yd · 2.4 TD · 1.1 INT5%19.6
  2. WRDK Metcalf4-63 on 7 tgt37%11.2
  3. RBJaylen Warren12 car · 36 yd   3-34 rec33%10.8
  4. WRCalvin Austin III3-51 on 5 tgt33%9.1
  5. TEJonnu Smith4-36 on 5 tgt30%7.9
NEPatriots
  1. QBDrake Maye281 pass yd · 2.1 TD · 0.7 INT · 27 rush yd42%24.8
  2. RBRhamondre Stevenson9 car · 41 yd   3-38 rec24%10.9
  3. WRKayshon Boutte3-52 on 4 tgt32%9.1
  4. WRStefon Diggs5-53 on 6 tgt18%8.9
  5. RBTreVeyon Henderson4 car · 20 yd   3-28 rec19%7.6
MIA@BUFBUF −9.2O/U 49.3MIA 20–29 BUF
MIA 25%BUF 75%
MIADolphins
  1. QBTua Tagovailoa235 pass yd · 1.7 TD · 1.3 INT2%15.2
  2. RBDe'Von Achane8 car · 41 yd   6-42 rec50%15.2
  3. WRTyreek Hill5-81 on 7 tgt16%11.6
  4. WRJaylen Waddle4-60 on 6 tgt31%10.3
  5. WRMalik Washington2-29 on 4 tgt14%5.9
BUFBills
  1. QBJosh Allen270 pass yd · 1.6 TD · 0.2 INT · 45 rush yd66%28.1
  2. RBJames Cook19 car · 91 yd   3-23 rec82%23.1
  3. WRKeon Coleman5-61 on 6 tgt40%11.6
  4. TEDalton Kincaid4-41 on 4 tgt32%8.2
  5. WRJosh Palmer4-50 on 5 tgt19%8.0
KC@NYGKC −0.8O/U 47.6KC 24–23 NYG
KC 52%NYG 48%
KCChiefs
  1. QBPatrick Mahomes234 pass yd · 1.0 TD · 0.4 INT · 44 rush yd51%21.7
  2. WRMarquise Brown8-80 on 10 tgt22%13.3
  3. WRTyquan Thornton3-45 on 4 tgt30%8.0
  4. TETravis Kelce3-34 on 5 tgt30%7.0
  5. RBIsiah Pacheco8 car · 34 yd   2-11 rec18%6.6
NYGGiants
  1. QBRussell Wilson325 pass yd · 1.9 TD · 0.6 INT · 29 rush yd18%24.2
  2. WRMalik Nabers8-103 on 13 tgt60%19.8
  3. WRWan'Dale Robinson7-80 on 9 tgt40%14.5
  4. RBTyrone Tracy Jr.7 car · 24 yd   4-22 rec21%8.1
  5. RBCam Skattebo6 car · 23 yd   2-12 rec32%6.9
NYJ@TBTB −6.0O/U 46.5NYJ 20–26 TB
NYJ 33%TB 67%
NYJJets
  1. QBJustin Fields140 pass yd · 0.5 TD · 0.2 INT · 44 rush yd50%15.9
  2. WRGarrett Wilson5-59 on 9 tgt37%11.2
  3. RBBreece Hall13 car · 47 yd   3-27 rec19%10.2
  4. WRJosh Reynolds2-19 on 3 tgt12%3.6
  5. RBBraelon Allen4 car · 11 yd   0-3 rec18%2.8
TBBuccaneers
  1. QBBaker Mayfield206 pass yd · 2.9 TD · 0.2 INT · 24 rush yd16%23.2
  2. RBBucky Irving17 car · 65 yd   4-22 rec42%13.9
  3. WREmeka Egbuka4-56 on 6 tgt62%13.6
  4. WRMike Evans5-70 on 9 tgt22%11.1
  5. RBRachaad White6 car · 34 yd   1-6 rec34%7.0
IND@TENIND −4.3O/U 46.1IND 25–21 TEN
IND 62%TEN 38%
INDColts
  1. QBDaniel Jones239 pass yd · 1.1 TD · 0.2 INT · 22 rush yd64%22.0
  2. RBJonathan Taylor23 car · 139 yd   2-16 rec34%18.9
  3. TETyler Warren6-59 on 8 tgt19%10.6
  4. WRMichael Pittman5-54 on 6 tgt36%10.4
  5. WRJosh Downs4-37 on 5 tgt16%6.7
TENTitans
  1. QBCam Ward148 pass yd · 0.9 TD · 0.2 INT8%10.8
  2. RBTony Pollard18 car · 86 yd   1-7 rec16%10.8
  3. WRElic Ayomanor4-36 on 7 tgt33%8.1
  4. WRCalvin Ridley4-41 on 7 tgt17%7.4
  5. TEChig Okonkwo3-26 on 5 tgt12%5.1
DEN@LACLAC −2.7O/U 44.3DEN 21–24 LAC
DEN 42%LAC 58%
🏟 dome
DENBroncos
  1. QBBo Nix181 pass yd · 1.4 TD · 1.6 INT · 23 rush yd16%14.7
  2. RBJ.K. Dobbins14 car · 55 yd   2-9 rec52%11.5
  3. WRTroy Franklin5-51 on 8 tgt35%10.4
  4. WRCourtland Sutton4-35 on 7 tgt33%7.6
  5. RBRJ Harvey5 car · 24 yd   1-7 rec12%4.4
LACChargers
  1. QBJustin Herbert248 pass yd · 1.7 TD · 0.2 INT · 34 rush yd21%21.5
  2. WRQuentin Johnston4-50 on 7 tgt61%12.8
  3. WRKeenan Allen5-51 on 8 tgt53%12.2
  4. RBOmarion Hampton12 car · 52 yd   1-12 rec19%8.4
  5. WRLadd McConkey4-45 on 7 tgt18%7.9
ARI@SFSF −2.3O/U 43.6ARI 21–23 SF
ARI 43%SF 57%
ARICardinals
  1. QBKyler Murray176 pass yd · 1.5 TD · 0.5 INT · 34 rush yd18%17.1
  2. RBJames Conner11 car · 35 yd   2-11 rec42%9.1
  3. WRMarvin Harrison Jr.4-48 on 6 tgt30%8.9
  4. TETrey McBride5-51 on 8 tgt14%8.8
  5. RBTrey Benson5 car · 25 yd   3-16 rec16%6.6
SF49ers
  1. QBMac Jones228 pass yd · 2.0 TD · 0.2 INT · 21 rush yd23%20.4
  2. RBChristian McCaffrey18 car · 60 yd   8-60 rec45%19.5
  3. WRJauan Jennings4-43 on 7 tgt36%8.8
  4. WRRicky Pearsall4-51 on 6 tgt18%8.2
  5. TEGeorge Kittle3-25 on 4 tgt29%6.3
GB@CLEGB −6.2O/U 43.2GB 25–19 CLE
GB 68%CLE 32%
GBPackers
  1. QBJordan Love191 pass yd · 2.1 TD · 0.2 INT · 12 rush yd13%17.9
  2. RBJosh Jacobs23 car · 69 yd   0-2 rec65%13.5
  3. TETucker Kraft3-39 on 5 tgt45%9.3
  4. WRJayden Reed3-43 on 5 tgt37%8.6
  5. WRRomeo Doubs3-42 on 4 tgt29%7.7
CLEBrowns
  1. QBJoe Flacco239 pass yd · 0.9 TD · 1.1 INT6%13.1
  2. TEHarold Fannin Jr.6-66 on 7 tgt14%10.6
  3. WRCedric Tillman4-40 on 8 tgt46%9.9
  4. RBDylan Sampson7 car · 19 yd   5-29 rec32%9.8
  5. WRJerry Jeudy5-51 on 8 tgt16%8.8
CIN@MINCIN −1.8O/U 43.0CIN 22–21 MIN
CIN 55%MIN 45%
🏟 dome
CINBengals
  1. QBJake Browning202 pass yd · 1.4 TD · 1.8 INT11%12.8
  2. WRJa'Marr Chase7-75 on 10 tgt40%14.1
  3. RBChase Brown19 car · 69 yd   2-13 rec44%12.6
  4. WRTee Higgins3-38 on 6 tgt32%7.8
  5. TENoah Fant3-30 on 4 tgt26%6.3
MINVikings
  1. QBJ.J. McCarthy140 pass yd · 0.9 TD · 1.3 INT · 19 rush yd24%11.4
  2. WRJustin Jefferson4-53 on 7 tgt33%9.8
  3. RBJordan Mason12 car · 43 yd   2-13 rec17%7.6
  4. RBAaron Jones6 car · 22 yd   2-17 rec22%6.2
  5. WRJalen Nailor2-29 on 4 tgt12%4.8
HOU@JAXJAX −2.7O/U 42.7HOU 20–23 JAX
HOU 42%JAX 58%
HOUTexans
  1. QBC.J. Stroud167 pass yd · 0.8 TD · 0.6 INT · 24 rush yd14%12.3
  2. WRNico Collins3-40 on 7 tgt33%8.1
  3. RBNick Chubb12 car · 40 yd   1-8 rec33%7.8
  4. TEDalton Schultz3-26 on 5 tgt10%4.9
  5. TECade Stover3-23 on 4 tgt12%4.6
JAXJaguars
  1. QBTrevor Lawrence223 pass yd · 1.8 TD · 1.2 INT · 12 rush yd12%16.9
  2. RBTravis Etienne16 car · 99 yd   3-18 rec32%15.3
  3. WRDyami Brown4-49 on 5 tgt34%10.0
  4. WRBrian Thomas Jr.4-50 on 9 tgt23%9.0
  5. RBBhayshul Tuten6 car · 27 yd   1-7 rec17%5.0
NO@SEASEA −4.2O/U 42.5NO 19–23 SEA
NO 38%SEA 62%
NOSaints
  1. QBSpencer Rattler243 pass yd · 1.3 TD · 0.3 INT · 19 rush yd12%17.5
  2. RBAlvin Kamara15 car · 53 yd   4-26 rec37%12.5
  3. TEJuwan Johnson8-59 on 10 tgt34%12.3
  4. WRChris Olave6-66 on 12 tgt19%11.0
  5. WRRashid Shaheed4-47 on 7 tgt32%9.2
SEASeahawks
  1. QBSam Darnold189 pass yd · 1.3 TD · 0.8 INT5%12.8
  2. WRJaxon Smith-Njigba8-102 on 11 tgt21%15.5
  3. RBKenneth Walker III12 car · 67 yd   2-9 rec40%11.5
  4. WRCooper Kupp4-48 on 6 tgt16%7.8
  5. RBZach Charbonnet14 car · 48 yd   0-0 rec38%7.7
ATL@CARATL −2.8O/U 42.4ATL 23–20 CAR
ATL 58%CAR 42%
ATLFalcons
  1. QBMichael Penix Jr.215 pass yd · 0.6 TD · 0.2 INT · 14 rush yd26%14.1
  2. RBBijan Robinson18 car · 98 yd   5-47 rec40%19.9
  3. RBTyler Allgeier14 car · 65 yd   0-3 rec37%9.7
  4. TEKyle Pitts5-54 on 6 tgt14%9.0
  5. WRDrake London5-48 on 9 tgt20%8.6
CARPanthers
  1. QBBryce Young236 pass yd · 2.2 TD · 1.7 INT · 18 rush yd12%19.0
  2. RBChuba Hubbard12 car · 40 yd   4-27 rec46%12.5
  3. WRTetairoa McMillan5-86 on 10 tgt18%12.4
  4. WRHunter Renfrow4-48 on 8 tgt47%10.7
  5. TEJa'Tavion Sanders4-34 on 6 tgt12%6.2
LA@PHIPHI −0.2O/U 41.9LA 21–21 PHI
LA 49%PHI 51%
LARams
  1. QBMatthew Stafford218 pass yd · 1.1 TD · 0.4 INT11%14.2
  2. WRPuka Nacua8-97 on 10 tgt24%15.9
  3. WRDavante Adams6-80 on 10 tgt38%13.8
  4. RBKyren Williams17 car · 70 yd   1-9 rec40%11.6
  5. RBBlake Corum3 car · 15 yd   0-2 rec16%3.0
PHIEagles
  1. QBJalen Hurts120 pass yd · 0.3 TD · 0.1 INT · 44 rush yd67%16.9
  2. RBSaquon Barkley20 car · 77 yd   3-15 rec58%15.7
  3. TEDallas Goedert6-38 on 7 tgt18%7.9
  4. WRDeVonta Smith3-31 on 4 tgt13%5.5
  5. WRA.J. Brown3-26 on 4 tgt13%4.9
LV@WASWAS −2.6O/U 38.1LV 18–20 WAS
LV 42%WAS 58%
LVRaiders
  1. QBGeno Smith271 pass yd · 0.6 TD · 1.7 INT · 16 rush yd10%13.6
  2. WRJakobi Meyers6-74 on 11 tgt17%11.8
  3. TEBrock Bowers6-78 on 8 tgt13%11.6
  4. RBAshton Jeanty14 car · 38 yd   2-10 rec34%8.4
  5. WRTre Tucker3-34 on 6 tgt27%6.9
WASCommanders
  1. QBJayden Daniels229 pass yd · 1.2 TD · 0.2 INT · 42 rush yd20%19.3
  2. WRDeebo Samuel Sr.7-67 on 9 tgt37%13.0
  3. TEZach Ertz4-52 on 6 tgt42%10.5
  4. WRTerry McLaurin4-46 on 6 tgt15%7.5
  5. RBAustin Ekeler7 car · 22 yd   3-15 rec17%6.1